Climate-related hazards have been shown to drive migration globally, predominantly within national borders and toward urban areas (Bohra-Mishra et al., 2017; Chen & Mueller, 2018; Martin et al., 2022; Sedova & Kalkuhl, 2020), but also across borders. While climate-linked migration is often portrayed as a potential driver of instability or conflict, empirical evidence remains limited and inconclusive. A systematic, large-scale understanding of the conditions under which climate-induced migration exacerbates risks of conflict or instability is still lacking (Brzoska, 2019; McLeman et al., 2021; Millock & Withagen, 2022; Watson et al., 2023; von Uexkull & Buhaug, 2021).
In a changing climate, it is crucial to understand these dynamics to mitigate the risk of migration contributing to larger-scale geopolitical tensions. For example, international refugee flows driven by conflict could escalate disputes over border control, potentially sparking inter-country conflicts. Similarly, brain drain caused by climate-induced skilled labor migration might destabilize labor markets and economies, impacting geopolitical stability and influence.
Task 4.1: Scope Condition Impacts on the Climate-Linked Migration-Conflict Nexus
This task investigates how various scope conditions (e.g., inequality, ethnic fragmentation, population density, conflict history, and characteristics of climate migrants) shape the impact of climate-linked migration on diverse conflict outcomes in receiving areas. It will examine security outcomes across the spectrum, from non-violent tensions to violent conflict, identifying subtle dynamics with the potential to escalate. Additionally, it will assess these dynamics across different degrees of urbanization in receiving areas (rural, suburban, and urban), uncovering larger geographical trends in risks.
To achieve these goals, sub-national analyses will leverage novel quantitative datasets on migration and conflict (e.g., Hoffmann et al., 2023; Mester et al., 2023; Raleigh et al., 2023), alongside established georeferenced conflict event data (e.g., UCDP) and weather datasets (e.g., ERA5). Causal inference techniques from statistical learning will be employed to analyze these data. In a final step, coefficients derived from these analyses will be combined with climate projections from the ISIMIP project to assess risk developments through the 21st century under different climate change scenarios (Warszawski et al., 2014).
The primary focus will be on the Global South, where climate-migration dynamics are most pronounced. Special emphasis will be placed on underexplored regions such as South-East Asia, including India and Indonesia, complementing existing research that often centers on the African continent. Finally, actionable recommendations will be developed to mitigate potential peace and security risks arising from migration in a changing climate.
Task 4.2: Labour Market Risks from Climate-Linked Migration
Labour migration is often viewed as an adaptive response to climatic changes (e.g., Maharjan et al., 2021), offering a potential “triple benefit” for sending communities, host labor markets, and migrants themselves. However, the adaptive potential of such migration is not guaranteed and carries inherent risks (e.g., Ransan-Cooper et al., 2015).
This task will focus on India, a rapidly developing nation with a large and diverse labor force, encompassing both high- and low-skilled workers. Migration is prevalent within the country and involves significant cross-border flows. Climate change in India and the surrounding region is expected to further influence migration patterns, with heat and precipitation changes playing a key role (Bhagat, 2017).
This task aims to analyze how climate change-driven migration affects labor supply and, in turn, economic potential and stability in India. It will explore the impacts of cross-border migration—both low- and high-skilled—on India’s economic performance and assess implications for national, regional, and global stability.
Expected Outcomes
- Comprehensive risk profiles detailing the impact of various scope conditions on the climate-migration-conflict nexus, accompanied by actionable recommendations to mitigate risks.
- Quantitative and qualitative assessments of risks associated with climate-driven cross-border labor migration.
- Analysis of potential geopolitical risks stemming from climate-linked migration and associated conflict or instability.
Dr. Barbora Sedova, Work Package Lead (4.1)
Dr. Fanny Thornton, Work Package Lead (4.2)
Sarah Lohr, Doctoral Researcher (4.1)
