New approach in El Niño forecasting potentially doubles the lead-time and helps forecasting its magnitude

Occurring roughly every two to seven years, El Niño (God’s Child) can send torrential rainfalls and empty fishing nets to Peru, droughts to Australia, or changes to the Indian monsoon patterns. Its worldwide impact makes early forecasting of this phenomenon so vital. While significant progress was made in forecasting the time El Niño is likely to hit the world’s shores, reliable forecasts of its magnitude remained limited to about six months in advance. Now, an international team of researchers led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has succeeded in doubling that time, allowing for El Niño forecasts a year in advance and also delivering information about its magnitude with high accuracy. [...]