Monsoon forecasting for improved climate resilience in Sri Lanka

According to the Disaster Management Center (DMS) in Sri Lanka, recently observed weather-related extremes like floods and droughts are becoming more frequent. Since 2010, floods and landslides caused by a heavy monsoon were noted almost every year. “The damages in 2016 amounted to 370 million US-Dollar. Current and projected future annual damages are expected to be between 100 to 150 million US-Dollar, said Eng. W.B. Palugaswewa, Director of the Ministry Irrigation Department. “The DMS desperately needs a long-term forecast of monsoon onset and withdrawal as a crucial component for disaster management”, stressed the Director General of Irrigation, Seenithamby Mohanarajah.

Prof. Sunil Wickramasuriya from General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University (KDU) had followed Elena Surovyatkina’s research and the last 3 years of successful long-term monsoon forecasts for India at PIK. By his efforts, the Government of Sri Lanka invited Surovyatkina to visit and discuss possibilities to translate the Indian experience of successful forecasts of monsoon timing to Sri Lanka. Several meetings with Senior Officials, lectures and following discussions at the Government and the KDU resulted in the conclusion that the forecast of the withdrawal date of monsoon from India provided by Surovyatkina can be applied immediately for Sri Lanka as a long term warning of approaching Winter monsoon.

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