Critical region for weather observations in the Indian subcontinent to improve Monsoon prediction

The analysis of distribution of weather stations over the Indian subcontinent by Prof. Elena Surovyatkina and Nitin Babu George, revealed that currently, ground based automatic weather stations (AWS) of Temperature and Humidity at Eastern Ghats (EG), North Pakistan (NP) regions and between them are low. This region, marked by blue ellipse, is most important for accurate forecast of monsoon onset and withdrawal. Eastern Ghats (EG) are North Pakistan (NP) are tipping elements of Indian summer monsoon, which are most sensitive to climate change.

To improve the forecast, it would be reasonable to enhance observations by increasing number of automatic weather stations at these tipping elements (EG and NP) and along the direction of north-westward monsoon advance between them.

However, currently installation and monitoring AWS in indicated area is a challenge due to the political situation with Pakistan for NP and local insurgent conflicts in EG such as Chattisgarh and neighboring regions. Nevertheless, we proceed another way to improve the situation. Our current strategy is the collaboration with the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Delhi, using newly developed Indian reanalysis data sets. We negotiate with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, how to enhance observations in climate change sensitive areas.