Breaking the rules: Monsoon and climate change

26.06.2019 - PIK-News: With global warming the Monsoon is changing, breaking well-established “rules” of the phenomenon, becoming more and more erratic and unpredictable. Close to half of the global population depends on monsoon rainfall. For the fourth year in a row, Prof. Dr. Surovyatkina from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) successfully predicted the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon in the central part of India more than a month in advance with a new forecast method. This method accounts for climate change effects and hence makes forecasting possible.
Breaking the rules: Monsoon and climate change
A flooded farm in a village in Kerala, India after monsoon rainfalls in 2018. Photo: istock/ajijchan

“Instead of covering the whole Indian subcontinent gradually by intensive showers, monsoon this year resembles a leaky blanket. With the severe cyclone 'Vayu' on the West coast, causing the evacuation of three million people, the rains on the remaining part of the country  were very local, sudden and in some places very intense, but went away after one downpour," explains Surovyatkina. "Even though large parts of the country received rainfall, distribution was non-uniform and the amount of rainfall was a less than certain criterion based on the average amount of rainfall in the past 30 years.  This is why, within ten days after the beginning of Monsoon on the South, the rainfall over almost the entire country was officially declared as pre-monsoon rainfall. Usually, pre-monsoon rainfall is very local, but the pre-monsoon rainfall on the scale of the country is unprecedented. Moreover, intensive rainfall in North India started even before the monsoon in the central part of India. That is breaking the well-established rules of monsoon."

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