key LPJ/LPJmL publications
Forthcoming
Rammig A, Wiedermann M, Donges J, Babst F, von Bloh W, Frank D, Thonicke K, Mahecha M 2014 Tree-ring responses to extreme climate events as benchmarks for terrestrial dynamic vegetation models. Biogeosciences Discussions.
2014
Bassu S, Brisson N, Durand J-L, Boote K, Lizaso J, Jones JW, Rosenzweig C, Ruane AC, Adam M, Baron C, Basso B, Biernath C, Boogaard H, Conijn S, Corbeels M, Deryng D, De Sanctis G, Gayler S, Grassini P, Hatfield J, Hoek S, Izaurralde C, Jongschaap R, Kemanian AR, Kersebaum KC, Kumar NS, Makowski D, Müller C, Nendel C, Priesack E, Pravia MV, Soo HK, Sau F, Shcherbak I, Tao F, Teixeira E, Timlin D, Waha K, (2014). How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Global Change Biology, 20, 7, 2301-2320.
Elliott J, Deryng D, Müller C, Frieler K, Konzmann M, Gerten D, Glotter M, Flörke M, Wada Y, Best N, Eisner S, Fekete B, Folberth C, Foster I, Gosling SN, Haddeland I, Khabarov N, Ludwig F, Masaki Y, Olin S, Rosenzweig C, Ruane AC, Satoh Y, Schmid E, Stacke T, Tang Q, Wisser D (2014): Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 9, 239-3244, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222474110 .
Friend AD, Lucht W, Rademacher TT, Keribin R, Betts R, Cadule P, Ciais P, Clark DB, Dankers R, Falloon PD, Ito A, Kahana R, Kleidon A, Lomas MR, Nishina K, Ostberg S, Pavlick R, Peylin P, Schaphoff S, Vuichard N, Warszawski L, Wiltshire A, Woodward FI. (2014): Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 9, 3280-3285, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222477110.
Haddeland I, Heinke J, Biemans H, Eisner S, Flörke M, Hanasaki N, Konzmann M, Ludwig F, Masaki Y, Schewe J, Stacke T, Tessler ZD, Wada Y, and Wisser D. (2014): Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 9, 3251-3256, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222475110.
Jägermeyr, J., Gerten, D., Lucht, W., Hostert, P., Migliavacca, M., Nemani, R. (2014): A high resolution data-driven approach to estimating ecosystem respiration at continental scales using operational satellite data. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 4, 1191-1210, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12443
Kuemmerle, T.; Baskin, L.; Leitão, P. J.; Prishchepov, A. V.; Thonicke, K. (2014): Potential impacts of oil and gas development and climate change on migratory reindeer calving grounds across the Russian Arctic. Diversity and Distributions, 20, 4, 4156-429, doi: 10.1111/ddi.12167
Kyle P, Müller C, Calvin K, Thomson A (2014): Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts. Earth's Future, 2, 83-98, doi: 10.1002/2013EF000199.
Müller C, Waha K, Bondeau A, Heinke J (2014): Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development. Global Change Biology, 20, 8, 2505–2517, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12586 [available online]
Müller C, Robertson R (2014): Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling. Agricultural Economics, 45, 1, 37-50, doi:10.1111/agec.12088
Nelson GC, van der Mensbrugghe D, Hasegawa T, Takahashi K, Sands R, Kyle P, Calvin K, Havlik P, Valin H, Mason d'Croz D, Kavallari A, Tabeau A, Schmitz C, Lotze-Campen H, Müller C, von Lampe M (2014): Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree. Agricultural Economics, 45, 1, 85-101, doi: 10.1111/agec.12091
Nelson GC, Valin H, Sands R, Havlík P, Ahammad H, Deryng D, Elliott J, Fujimori S, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, Von Lampe M, Lotze-Campen H, Mason d'Croz D, van Meijl H, van der Mensbrugghe D, Müller C, Popp A, Robertson R, Robinson S, Schmid E, Schmitz C, Tabeau A, and Willenbockel D. (2014): Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 9, 3274-3279, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222465110 .
Piontek F, Müller C, Pugh T, Clark D, Deryng D, Elliott J, Colón-González F, Flörke M, Folberth C, Fransseni W, Frieler K, Friend AD, Gosling S, Hemming D, Khabarov N, Kim H, Lomas M, Masaki Y, Mengel M, Morse A, Neumann K, Nishina K, Ostberg S, Pavlick R, Ruane A, Schewe J, Schmid E, Stacke T, Tang Q, Tessler Z, Tompkins A, Warszawski L, Wisser D, and Schellnhuber H. (2014): Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 9 3233-3238, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222471110 .
Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Müller C, Arneth A, Boote KJ, Folberth C, Glotter M, Khabarov N, Neumann K, Piontek F, Pugh TAM, Schmid E, Stehfest E, Yang H, Jones JW. (2014): Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 9, 3268-3273, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110
Sakschewski B, von Bloh W, Huber V, Müller C, Bondeau A (2014): Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems? Ecological Modelling, 288, 103-111, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.05.019. [available online]
Schewe J, Heinke J, Gerten D, Haddeland I, Arnell NW, Clark DB, Dankers R, Eisner S, Fekete BM, Colón-González FJ, Gosling SN, Kim H, Liu X, Masaki Y, Portmann FT, Satoh Y, Stacke T, Tang Q, Wada Y, Wisser D, Albrecht T, Frieler K, Piontek F, Warszawski L, and Kabat P. early online, Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 9, 3245–3250, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222460110.
Zscheischler J, Mahecha M, von Buttlar J, Harmeling S, Jung M, Rammig A, Randerson J, Schölkopf B, Seneviratne S, Tomelleri E, Zaehle S, Reichstein M (2014): Few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production. Environmental Research Letters, 9, 035001, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/035001.
2013
Asseng S, Ewert F, Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL, Ruane AC, Boote KJ, Thorburn PJ, Rotter RP, Cammarano D, Brisson N, Basso B, Martre P, Aggarwal PK, Angulo C, Bertuzzi P, Biernath C, Challinor AJ, Doltra J, Gayler S, Goldberg R, Grant R, Heng L, Hooker J, Hunt LA, Ingwersen J, Izaurralde RC, Kersebaum KC, Müller C, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, O'Leary G, Olesen JE, Osborne TM, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Steduto P, Stockle C, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Travasso M, Waha K, Wallach D, White JW, Williams JR, Wolf J (2013): Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change, Nature Clim. Change, 3, 827-832, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1916
Biemans, H., Speelman, L., Ludwig, F., Moors, E., Wiltshire, A.J., Kumar, P., Gerten, D., Kabat, P. (2013): Future water resources for food production in five South Asian river basins and potential of adaptation options – a modelling study. Sci. Tot. Env. (early online).
Dass P, Müller C, Brovkin V, Cramer W (2013): Can bioenergy cropping compensate high carbon emissions from large-scale deforestation of mid to high latitudes? Earth Syst. Dynam. , 4, 409-424, doi: 10.5194/esd-4-409-2013.
Fader, M., Gerten, D., Krause, M., Lucht, W., Cramer, W. (2013): Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependence of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 014046.
Gerten, D. 2013: A vital link: water and vegetation in the Anthropocene. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 3841–3852.
Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Rockström, J., Jägermeyr, J., Kummu, M., Pastor, A. Towards a revised planetary boundary for consumptive freshwater use: role of environmental flow requirements. Curr. Op. Environ. Sust. 5, 551–558.
Gerten, D., Lucht, W., Ostberg, S., Heinke, J., Kowarsch, M., Kreft, H., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Rastgooy, J., Warren, R., Schellnhuber, H.J. 2013: Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034032.
Heinke J, Ostberg S, Schaphoff S, Frieler K, Müller C, Gerten D, Meinshausen M, Lucht W (2012): A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming. Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 5, 1689-1703, doi:10.5194/10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013.
Holden, P.B., Edwards, N.R., Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S. A model-based constraint of CO2 fertilisation. Biogeosci. 10, 339–355.
Joos F, Roth R, Fuglestvedt JS, Peters GP, Enting IG, von Bloh W, Brovkin V, Burke EJ, Eby M, Edwards NR, Friedrich T, Frölicher TL, Halloran PR, Holden PB, Jones C, Kleinen T, Mackenzie FT, Matsumoto K, Meinshausen M, Plattner G-K, Reisinger A., Segschneider J., Shaffer G., Steinacher M, Strassmann K, Tanaka K., Timmermann A, Weaver AJ 2013 Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis. Atmos. Chem. Phys., doi:10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013
Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Heinke, J. 2013: Climate impacts on global irrigation requirements under 19 GCMs, simulated with a vegetation and hydrology model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 58, 1–18.
Langerwisch, F., Rost, S., Gerten, D., Poulter, B., Rammig, A., Cramer, W. 2013: Potential effects of climate change on inundation pattern in the Amazon basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 2247–2262.
Ostberg, S., Lucht, W., Schaphoff, S., Gerten, D. 2013: Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems. Earth Syst. Dynam. 4, 347–357.
Schaphoff, S., Heyder, U., Ostberg, S., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Lucht, W. 2013. Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 014026.
van Oijen M, Beer C, Cramer W, Rammig A, Reichstein M, Rolinski S & Soussana J-F 2013 A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Environmental Research Letters 8:015032, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015032
Waha K, Müller C, Bondeau A, Dietrich JP, Kurukulasuriya P, Heinke J, Lotze-Campen H (2013): Adaptation to climate change through the choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa. Global Environmental Change, 32,1, 130-143, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.001.
Waha K, Müller C, Rolinski S (2013): Separating the effects of temperature and precipitation change on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa. Global and Planetary Change, 106,1-12, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.02.009
Warszawski L, Friend A, Ostberg S, Frieler K, Lucht W, Schaphoff S, Beerling D, Cadule P, Ciais P, Clark DB, Kahana R, Ito A, Keribin R, Lomas AKM, Nishina K, Pavlick R, Rademacher TT, Buechner M, Piontek F, Schewe J, Serdeczny O, and Schellnhuber HJ (2013): A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 8, 044018, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018.
2012
Boisier JP, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Pitman AJ, Cruz FT, Delire C, van den Hurk BJJM, van der Molen MK, Müller C, Voldoire A (2012): Attributing the biogeophysical impacts of Land-Use induced Land-Cover Changes on surface climate to specific causes. Results from the first LUCID set of simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmosphere, 117, D12116, doi: 10.1029/2011JD017106
de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Boisier JP, Pitman A, Bonan GB, Brovkin V, Cruz F, Delire C, Gayler V, van den Hurk BJJM, Lawrence PJ, van der Molen MK, Müller C, Reick CH, Strengers BJ, Voldoire A (2012): Determining robust impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes on surface climate over North America and Eurasia - Results from the first set of LUCID experiments. Journal of Climate, 25, pp. 3261–3281, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00338.1.
Füssel, H.-M., Heinke, J., Popp, A., Gerten, D. 2012: Climate change and water supply. In: Edenhofer, O., Wallacher, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Reder, M., Knopf, B., Müller, J. (Eds.): Climate Change, Justice and Sustainability – Linking Climate and Development Policy, 19–32. Springer
Gerten, D., Lucht, W., Kundzewicz, Z. W. 2012: Detection and attribution of changes in water resources. In: Kundzewicz, Z. W. (Ed.), Changes in Flood Risk in Europe, 421–434. IAHS Special Publication 10. CRC Press.
Hoff, H., Gerten, D., Waha, K. 2012: Green and blue water in Africa – how foreign direct investment can support sustainable intensification. In: Allan, T., Keulertz, M., Sojamo, S., Warner, J. (Eds.), Handbook on Land and Water Grabs: Foreign Direct Investment and Food and Water Security, 356–372. Routledge.
Souty F, Brunelle T, Dumas P, Dorin B, Ciais P, Crassous R, Müller C, Bondeau A (2012): The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use, Geoscientific Model Development, 5, 1297-1322, doi:10.5194/gmdd-5-571-2012.
Waha K, van Bussel LGJ, Müller C, Bondeau A (2012): Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21,2, pp. 247-259, doi: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00678.x
2011
Beringer T, Lucht W, Schaphoff S 2011. Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints. Glob. Change Biol. Bioen. 3, 299-312.
Biemans, H., Haddeland, I., Kabat, P., Ludwig, F., Hutjes, R.W.A., Heinke, J., von Bloh, W., Gerten, D. 2011: Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century. Water Resour. Res. 47, W03509.
Fader, M., Gerten, D., Thammer, M., Heinke, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Lucht, W., Cramer, W. 2011: Internal and external green-blue agricultural water footprints of nations, and related water and land savings through trade. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 1641–1660.
Franck S, von Bloh W, Müller C, Bondeau A, Sakschewski B (2011): Harvesting the sun: new estimations of the maximum population of the planet Earth. Ecological Modelling, 222, 12, pp. 2019-2026, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.03.030.
Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Hoff, H., Biemans, H., Fader, M., Waha, K. 2011: Global water availability and requirements for future food production. J. Hydrometeor. 12, 885–899.
Haberl H, Erb KH, Krausmann F, Bondeau A, Lauk C, Müller C, Plutzar C, Steinberger JK (2011): The sensitivity of global bioenergy potentials in 2050 to climate change: A material flow analysis perspective. Biomass & Bioenergy, 35, 12, pp. 4753-4769, doi: 10.1016/j.biombioe.2011.04.035
Haddeland, I., Clark, D.B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voß, F., Arnell, N.W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Gerten, D. et al. 2011: Multi-model estimate of the global water balance: setup and first results. J. Hydrometeor. 12, 869–884.
Heyder, U., Schaphoff, S., Gerten, D., Lucht, W. 2011: Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 034036.
Neumann K, Stehfest E, Verburg PH, Siebert S, Müller C, Veldkamp T (2011): Exploring global irrigation patterns: A multilevel modelling approach. Agricultural Systems 104, 9, pp. 703-713, doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2011.08.004.
van Bussel LGJ, Müller C, van Keulen H, Ewert F, Leffelaar PA (2011): The Effect of Temporal Aggregation of Weather Input Data on Crop Growth Models’ Results. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151, 5, pp. 607-619, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.01.007
2010
Ciais P, Wattenbach M, Vuichard N, Smith P, Piao SL, Don A, Luyssaert S, Janssens I, Bondeau A, Dechow R, Leip A, Smith Pc, Beer C, van der Werf GR, Gervois S, Van Oost K, Tomelleri E, Freibauer A, Schulze ED & CarboEurope Synthesis Team (2010) The European carbon balance. Part 2: croplands Global Change Biology.
Fader, M., Rost, S., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Gerten, D. 2010. Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns. J. Hydrol. 384, 218–231.
Gumpenberger M, Vohland K, Heyder U, Poulter B, Macey K, Rammig A, Popp A, Cramer W (2010) Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses- implications for REDD. Environmental Research Letters
Hoff H, Falkenmark M, Gerten D, Gordon L, Karlberg L, Rockström J (2010) Greening the global water system. Journal of Hydrology
Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Seneviratne, S.I., Sheffield, J., Goulden, M.L., Bonan, G., Cescatti, A., Chen, J., de Jeu, R., Dolman, A.J., Eugster, W., Gerten, D. et al. 2010: Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature 467, 951–954.
Lapola DM, Schaldach R, Alcamo JM, Bondeau A, Koch J, Kölking C, Priess J (2010) Indirect land-use changes can overcome carbon savings by biofuels in Brazil. PNAS. doi:10.1073/pnas.0907318107
Lotze-Campen H, Popp A, Beringer T, Müller C, Bondeau A, Rost S, Lucht, W (2010): Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade. Ecological Modelling, 221, pp. 2188-2196, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.002
Neumann K, Verburg P, Stehfest E, Müller C (2010): The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis. Agricultural Systems,103, 5, pp. 316-326, doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2010.02.004
Poulter B, Aragáo L, Heyder U, Gumpenberger M, Heinke J, Langerwisch F, Rammig A, Thonicke K, Cramer W. (2010). Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century. Global Change Biology
Rammig A, Jupp T, Thonicke K, Tietjen B, Heinke J, Ostberg S, Lucht W, Cramer W & Cox P 2010. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback. New Phytol 187(3):694-706, (supporting online material), doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03318.x
Strengers, B.J., Müller, C., Schaeffer, M., Haarsma, R.J., Severijns, C., Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., van den Houdt, R., Oostenrijk, R. 2010. Assessing 20th century climate-vegetation feedbacks of land-use change and natural vegetation dynamics in a fully coupled vegetation-climate model. Internat. J. Climatol. 30, 2055–2065.
Thonicke K, Spessa A, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Dong L & Carmona-Moreno C 2010. The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model. Biogeoscience 7(6):1991-2011
von Bloh, W., Rost, S., Gerten, D., Lucht, W. 2010. Efficient parallelization of a dynamical global vegetation model with river routing. Environ. Model. Softw. 25, 685–690.
2009
Rost, S., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Lucht, W., Falkenmark, M., Rockström, J. 2009. Global potential to increase crop production through water management in rainfed agriculture. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 044002.
Biemans, H., Hutjes, R., Kabat, P., Strengers, B., Gerten, D., Rost, S. 2009. Impacts of precipitation uncertainty on discharge calculations for main river basins, J. Hydrometeor. 10, 1011–1025.
Rockström, J., Falkenmark, M., Karlberg, L., Hoff, H., Rost, S., Gerten, D. 2009. Future water availability for global food production: The potential of green water for increasing resilience to global change. Water Resour. Res. 45, W00A12.
Pitman, AJ, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Cruz FT, Davin EL, Bonan GB, Brovkin V, Claussen M, Delire C, Gayler V, van den Hurk BJJM, Lawrence PJ, van der Molen MK, Müller C, Reick CH, Seneviratne SI, Strengers BJ, Voldoire A (2009): Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L14814, doi:10.1029/2009GL039076
2008
Rickebusch S, Thuiller W, Hickler T, Araujo MB, Sykes MT, Schweiger O, Lafourcade B (2008): Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models. Biology Letters 4(5): 556-559, doi:10.1098/rsbl.2008.0105.
Hickler T, Smith B, Prentice IC, Mjöfors K, Arneth A, Sykes MT 2008 CO2 fertilization in temperate FACE experiments not representative of boreal and tropical forests. Global Change Biology 14: 1531-1542
Jansson M, Hickler T, Jonsson A, Karlsson J 2008 Links between terrestrial primary production and bacterial production and respiration in lakes in a climate gradient in subarctic Sweden. Ecosystems 11: 367-376
Miller PA, Giesecke T, Hickler T, Bradshaw RHW, Smith B, Seppä H, Valdes PJ, Sykes MT 2008 Exploring climatic and biotic controls on Holocene vegetation change in Fennoscandia. Journal of Ecology 96: 247-259
Thomas CD, Ohlemüller R, Anderson B, Hickler T, Miller PA, Sykes MT, Williams JW 2008 Exporting the ecological impacts of climate change. The EMBO journal . EMBO Reports 9, S1, S28–S33.
2007
Arneth A, Niinemets Ü, Pressley S, Bäck J, Hari P, Karl T, Noe S, Prentice IC, Serça D, Hickler T, Wolf A, Smith B 2007 Process-based estimates of terrestrial ecosystem isoprene emissions: incorporating the effects of a direct CO2-isoprene interaction. Journal of Biogeography 33: 145-157
Beer C, Lucht W, Gerten D, Thonicke K, Schmullius C 2007 Effects of soil freezing and thawing on vegetation carbon density in Siberia - A modeling analysis with the LPJ-DGVM. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21, GB1012, doi:10.1029/2006GB002760
Bondeau A, Smith P, Zaehle S, Schaphoff S, Lucht W, Cramer W, Gerten D, Lotze-Campen H, Müller C, Reichstein M, Smith B 2007 Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Global Change Biology 13, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x
Gerten D, Schaphoff S, Lucht W 2007 Potential future changes in water limitations of the terrestrial biosphere
Climatic Change: online first, doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9104-8
Morales P, Hickler T, Rowell DP, Smith B, Sykes MT 2007 Changes in European ecosystem productivity and carbon balance driven by Regional Climate Model output. Global Change Biology 13: 108-122
Müller C, Lucht W 2007 Robustness of terrestrial carbon and water cycle simulations against variations in spatial resolution. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007875
Müller C, Eickhout B, Zaehle S, Bondeau S, Cramer S, Lucht W 2007
Effects of changes in CO2, climate, and land use on the carbon balance of the land biosphere during the 21st century, Journal of Geophysical Research 112, G02032, doi:10.1029/2006JG000388.
Olesen JE, Carter TR, Diaz-Ambrona CH, Fronzek S, Heidmann T, Hickler T, Holt T, Minguez-Tudela MI, Morales P, Palutikov J, Quemada M, Ruiz-Ramos M, Rubäck G, Sau F, Smith B, Sykes MT 2007
Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Climatic Change 81: 123-143.
Olofsson J and Hickler T Human 2007
Human impact on the global carbon cycle during the last 6000 years. Archeobotany and vegetation history. Online early
Sitch S, McGuire AD, Kimball J, Gedney N, Gamon J, Engstrom R, Wolf, A, Zhuang, Q, Clein J (2007)
Assessing the circumpolar carbon balance of arctic tundra with remote sensing and process-based modeling approaches, Ecological Applications, 17, 1, 213-234.
Werner C, Butterbach-Bahl K, Haas E, Hickler T, Kiese R 2007
A global inventory from tropical rainforest soils of N2O emissions using a detailed biogeochemical model.
Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21: GB3010, doi:10.1029/2006GB002909
Prentice IC, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Harrison SP, Hickler T, Lucht W, Sitch S, Smith B & Sykes MT 2007
Dynamic global vegetation modelling: quantifying terrestrial ecosystem responses to large-scale environmental change. In: Canadell JP, Pataki D & Pitelka LF (eds.) Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, Pp. 175-192
Zaehle S, Bondeau A, Carter TR, Cramer W, Erhard M, Prentice IC, Reginster I, Rounsevell MDA, Sitch S, Smith B, Smith PC & Sykes M 2007 rojected change in terrestrial carbon storage in Europe under climate and land use change. Ecosystems, 10, 3, 380-401, doi: 10.1007/s10021-007-9028-9
2006
Beer C, Lucht W, Schmullius C, Shvidenko A 2006 Small net carbon dioxide uptake by Russian forests during 1981-1999.Geophysical Research Letters 33: L15403, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026919
Erbrecht T, Lucht W 2006 Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle.
Carbon Balance and Management 1:7, doi:10.1186/1750-0680-1-7 (open access)
Hély C, Bremond L, Alleaume S, Smith B, Sykes MT, Guiot J 2006 Sensitivity of African biomes to changes in the precipitation regime. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 258-270
Hickler T, Prentice IC, Smith B, Sykes MT, Zaehle S 2006 Implementing plant hydraulic architecture within the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 567-577
Koca D, Smith B, Sykes MT 2006 Modelling regional climate change effects on Swedish ecosystems.
Climatic Change 78: 381-406
Leipprand A, Gerten D 2006 Global effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 content on evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff under potential natural vegetation. Hydrological Sciences Journal 51: 171-185
Liu Z, Notaro M, Kutzbach J, Liu N 2006 Assessing global vegetation-climate feedbacks from observations.
Journal of Climate 19: 787-814
Liu Z, Wang Y, Gallimore R, Notaro M, Prentice IC 2006 On the cause of abrupt vegetation collapse in North Africa during the Holocene: Climate variability vs. vegetation feedback. Geophysical Research Letters 33: L22709, doi:10.1029/2006GL028062.
Liu Z, Wang Y, Gallimore R, Gasse F, Johnson T, deMenocal P, Adkins J, Notaro M, Prentice IC, Kutzbach J, Jacob R, Behling P, Wang L, Ong E 2006 Simulating the transient evolution and abrupt change of North Africa atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial ecosystem in the Holocene. Journal of Quaternary Science, accepted
Lucht W, Schaphoff S, Erbrecht T, Heyder U, Cramer W 2006 Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change. Carbon Balance and Management 1: 6, doi: 10.1186/1750-0680-1-6
Müller C, Bondeau A, Lotze-Campen H, Cramer W, Lucht W 2006 Comparative impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on global terrestrial carbon and water cycles. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 20: GB4015, doi:10.1029/2006GB002742
Notaro, M, Vavrus S, Liu Z 2006 Global vegetation and climate change due to future increases in CO2 as projected by a fully coupled model with dynamic vegetation. Journal of Climate 20: 70-90
Notaro M, Liu Z 2006 Potential impact of the Eurasian boreal forest on North Pacific climate variability. Journal of Climate 20: 981-992
Reichstein M, Ciais P, Papale D, Valentini R, Running S, Viovy N, Cramer W, Granier A, Ogée J, Allard V, Aubinet M, Bernhofer C, Buchmann N, Carrara A, Grünwald T, Heimann M, Heinesch B, Knohl A, Kutsch W, Loustau D, Manca G, Matteucci G, Miglietta F, Ourcival JM, Pilegaard K, Pumpanen J, Rambal S, Schaphoff S, Seufert G, Soussana J-F, Sanz MJ, Vesala T, Zhao M 2006
Reduction of ecosystem productivity and respiration during the European summer 2003 climate anomaly: a joint flux tower, remote sensing and modelling analysis. Global Change Biology, OnlineEarly, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01224.x
Schaphoff S, Lucht W, Gerten D, Sitch S, Cramer W, Prentice IC 2006 Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate projections. Climatic Change 74: 97-122
Scholze M, Knorr W, Arnell NW, Prentice IC 2006 A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 103(35): 13116-13120
Thonicke K, Cramer W 2006 Long-term trends in vegetation dynamics and forest fires in Brandenburg (Germany) under a changing climate. Natural Hazards 38: 283-300, doi: 10.1007/s11069-005-8639-8
Zaehle S, Sitch S, Prentice IC, Liski J, Cramer W, Erhard M, Hickler T, Smith B 2006 The importance of representing age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances. Ecological Applications 16: 1555-1574
2005
Gallimore R., Jacob R, Kutzbach J 2005 Coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation simulations for modern and mid-Holocene climates: Role of extratropical vegetation cover feedbacks. Climate Dynamics 25 (7-8): 755-776, doi 10.1007/s00382-005-0054-z
Gerten D, Lucht W, Schaphoff S, Cramer W, Hickler T, Wagner W 2005 Hydrologic resilience of the terrestrial biosphere. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L21408, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024247
Gerten D, Haberlandt U, Cramer W, Erhard M 2005 Terrestrial carbon and water fluxes. in: Hantel, M.(Ed.), Observed Global Climate, Landolt-Börnstein New Series Vol. 6, Springer, Berlin, 2005.
Gerten D, Hoff H, Bondeau A, Lucht W, Smith P, Zaehle S 2005 Contemporary "green" water flows: simulations with a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 30: 334-338
Hickler T, Eklundh L, Seaquist J, Smith B, Ardö J, Olsson L, Sykes M, Sjöström M 2005 Precipitation controls Sahel greening trend. Geophysical Research Letters 32, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024370
Köhler P, Joos F, Gerber S, Knutti R 2005 Simulated changes in vegetation distribution, land carbon storage, and atmospheric CO2 in response to a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation.
Climate Dynamics, 25 (7-8): 689-708, doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0058-8
Ni J, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, Kutzbach J, Stich S 2005 Impact of climate variability on present and Holocene vegetation: A model-based study. Ecological Modelling 191: 469-486
Notaro M, Liu Z, Gallimore R, Vavrus SJ, Kutzbach JE, Prentice IC, Jacob RL 2005
Simulated and observed pre-industrial to modern vegetation and climate changes. Journal of Climate 18 (17): 3650-3671
Peylin P, Bousquet P, Le Quere C, Sitch S, Friedlingsstein P, McKinley G, Gruber N, Rayner P, Ciais P 2005
Multiple constraints on regional CO2 flux variations over land and oceans. Global Change Biology 19: GB1011, doi:10.1029/2003GB002214
Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R, Prentice IC, Araújo MB, Arnell NW, Bondeau A, Bugmann H, Carter TR, Garcia CA, de la Vega-Leinert AC, Erhard M, Ewert F, Glendining M, House JI, Kankaanpää S, Klein RJT, Lavorel S, Lindner M, Metzger MJ, Meyer J, Mitchell TD, Reginster I, Rounsevell M, Sabaté S, Sitch S, Smith B, Smith J, Smith P, Sykes MT, Thonicke K, Thuiller W, Tuck G, Zaehle S, Zierl B 2005
Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe.
Science, 310: 1333-1337, doi: 10.1126/science.1115233 (13)
Sitch S, Brovkin V, von Bloh W 2005 Impacts of future land cover changes on atmospheric CO2 and climate. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19: GB2013, doi:10.1029/2004GB002311
Thonicke K, Prentice IC, Hewitt C 2005 Modeling glacial-interglacial changes in global fire regimes and trace gas emissions. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19: GB3008, doi:10.1029/2004GB002278
Wu L, Liu Z, Gallimore R, Notaro M, Jacob R 2005 Modeling surgery: A new way toward understanding Earth climate variability. Journal of Ocean University of China 10: 306-314
Zaehle S, Sitch S, Smith B, Hatterman F 2005 Effects of parameter uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19: GB3020, doi:10.1029/2004GB002395
2004
Cramer W, Bondeau A, Schaphoff S, Lucht W, Smith B, Sitch S 2004 Tropical forests and the global carbon cycle: impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate change and rate of deforestation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London B 359: 331-343, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2003.1428
Brovkin V, Sitch S, von Bloh W, Clausen M, Bauer E, Cramer W 2004 Role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO2 increase and climate change during the last 150 years. Global Change Biology 10: 1-14, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00812.x
Gerber S, Joos F, Prentice I C 2004 Sensitivity of a dynamic global vegetation model to climate and atmospheric CO2. Global Change Biology 7: 357-373
Gerten D, Bondeau A, Hoff H, Lucht W, Schaphoff S, Smith P 2004 Assessment of 'green' water fluxes with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. In: Webb B, Arnell N, Onof C, MacIntyre N, Gurney R, Kirby C (eds.) Hydrology: Science and Practice for the 21st Century. Vol. I: 29-35, British Hydrological Society
Gerten D, Schaphoff S, Haberlandt U, Lucht W, Sitch S 2004 Terrestrial vegetation and water balance - hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology 286: 249-270
Hickler T, Smith B, Sykes MT, Davis MB, Sugita S, Walker K 2004 Using a generalized vegetation model to simulate vegetation dynamics in the western Great Lakes region, USA, under alternative disturbance regime.
Ecology 85: 519-530
Joos F, Gerber S, Prentice IC, Otto-Bliesner BL, Valdes PJ 2004 Transient simulations of Holocene atmospheric carbon dioxide and terrestrial carbon since the Last Glacial Maximum. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18, GB2002, doi: 10.1029/2003GB002156
Joos F, Prentice IC 2004 A paleo-perspective on changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate in: Towards stabilization of atmospheric CO2. In: Field C, Raupach M (eds.) SCOPE/GCP rapid assessment of the carbon cycle. Island Press
McCloy KR, Lucht W 2004 Comparative evaluation of seasonal patterns in long time series of satellite data and simulations of a global vegetation model. IEEE Transaction on Geosciences and Remote Sensing 42: 140-153
2003
Bachelet D, Neilson RP, Hickler T, Drapek RJ, Lenihan JM, Sykes M, Smith B, Sitch S, Thonicke K 2003
Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17: 14-1, doi: 10.1029/2001GB001508
Bonan G, Levis S, Sitch S, Vertenstein M, Oleson KW 2003 A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics. Global Change Biology 9: 1543-1566, doi: 10.1046/j.1529-8817.2003.00681.x
Gerber S, Joos F, Brügger P, Stocker TF, Mann ME, Sitch S, Scholze M 2003 Constraining temperature variations over the last millenium by comparing simulated and observed atmospheric CO2. Climate Dynamics 20: 281-299, doi: 10.1007/s00382-002-0270-8
Kaplan JO, Bigelow NH, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Bartlein PJ, Christensen TR, Cramer W, Matveyeva NV, McGuire AD, Murray DF, Razzhivin VY, Smith B, Walker DA, Anderson PM, Andreev AA, Brubaker LB, Edwards ME, Lozhkin AV 2003 Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 12-1, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002559
Lucht W 2003 Der Norden ergrünt im Computer. Spektrum der Wissenschaften 2/03: 8-10
Scholze M, Kaplan JO, Knorr W, Heimann M 2003 Climate and interannual variability of the atmosphere-biosphere 13CO2 flux. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 1097, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015631
Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC, Arneth A, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Kaplan J, Levis S, Lucht, W, Sykes M, Thonicke K, Venevsky S 2003 Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ Dynamic Vegetation Model. Global Change Biology 9: 161–185
Wagner W, Scipal K, Pathe C, Gerten D, Lucht W, Rudolf B 2003 Evaluation of the agreement between the first global remotely sensed soil moisture data with model and precipitation data. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: 4611, doi: 10.1029/2003JD003663
2002
Dargaville, R. J., M. Heimann, A. D. McGuire, I. C. Prentice, D. W. Kicklighter, F. Joos, J. S. Clein, G. Esser, J. Foley, J. Kaplan, R. A. Meier, J. M. Melillo, B. Moore III, N. Ramankutty, T. Reichenau, A. Schloss, S. Sitch, H. Tian, L. J. Williams and U. Wittenberg, Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate, and land-use effects, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 16(4), 1092, doi: 10.1029/2001GB001426, 2002.
Joos, F., I. C. Prentice and J. I. House, Growth enhancement due to global atmospheric change as predicted by terrestrial ecosystem models: consistent with U. S. forest inventory, Global Change Biology, 8, 299-303, 2002.
Knorr, W.; Smith, B.; Widlowski, J.-L.; Pinty, B. and Gobron, N.(2002): Combining remote sensing techniques with productivity models: a case study for monitoring carbon stocks in northern European forests Proceedings of the OECD Workshop "Remote Sensing for Agriculture and the Environment", Kifissia, Greece, September 17-20, 2002.
Lucht, W., I. C. Prentice, R. B. Myneni, S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, W. Cramer, P. Bousquet, W. Buermann and B. Smith, Climate effects upon vegetation explain remotely-sensed boreal greening trend and Pinatubo effect, Science, 296, 1687 - 1689, 2002.
Pan, Y., A. McGuire, A. David; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Sitch, Stephen and Prentice, I. Colin (2002): A biogeochemistry-based dynamic vegetation model and its application along a moisture gradient in the continental United States. Journal of Vegetation Science, 13, p. 369-382, 2002.
Scheffler, C., Früherkennung und Beobachtung von Hochwasser mittels ERS-Scatterometerdaten am Beispiel der Einzugsgebiete Sambesi und Limpopo im Zeitraum von 1992 bis 2000, Diplomarbeit Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, unveröffentlicht, 2002.
Thonicke, K., S. Venevsky and W. Cramer, Vegetation and fire interactions under different climate conditions - Two examples of human-dominated fire regimes
Conference Proceedings of IV International Conference of Forest Fire Research, 18.-23. November 2002, Luso-Coimbra, Portugal.
Venevsky, S., K. Thonicke, S. Sitch and W. Cramer, Simulating fire regimes in human-dominated ecosystems: Iberian Peninsula case study, Global Change Biology, 8, 984-998, 2002.
2001
Cramer, W., A. Bondeau, F. I. Woodward, I. C. Prentice, R. A. Betts, V. Brovkin, P. M. Cox, V. Fisher, J. Foley, A. D. Friend, C. Kucharik, M. R. Lomas, N. Ramankutty, S. Sitch, B. Smith, A. White and C. Young-Molling, Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models, Global Change Biology, 7, 357-373, 2001.
McCloy, K. R. and W. Lucht, Comparison of the Fraction Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) data derived from AVHRR NDVI data with that estimated by the LPJ global dynamic vegetation model, for the globe over the period July 1981 - June 1998, International geoscience remote sensing symposium 01, July 9 - 13, 2001, Sydney, Australia.
McGuire, A.D., S. Sitch, J. S. Clein, R. Dargaville, G. Esser, J. Foley, M. Heimann, F. Joos, J. Kaplan, D. W. Kicklighter, R. A. Meier, J. M. Melillo, B. Moore III, I. C. Prentice, N. Ramankutty, T. Reichenau, A. Schloss, H. Tian, L. J. Williams and U. Wittenberg, Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15(1), 183-206, 2001.
Joos, F., I. C. Prentice, S. Sitch, R. Meyer, G. Hooss, G.-K. Plattner, S. Gerber, S. and K. Hasselmann, Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emmission scenarios, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15, 891-908, 2001.
Lucht, W., A. Bondeau, S. Sitch, W. Cramer, S. Venevsky and K. Thonicke, Synergistic use of satellite data and a dynamic model of the global biospheric carbon cycle 8th Int. Symp. Phys. Meas. Signat. in Remote Sensing, Aussois, France, January 8-12, 659-668, 2001.
Smith, B., I. C. Prentice and M. T. Sykes, Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space, Global Ecology & Biogeography, 10 (ETEMA special issue), 621-637, 2001.
Thonicke, K., S. Venevsky, S. Sitch and W. Cramer, The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: coupling fire into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Global Ecology & Biogeography, 10 (ETEMA special issue), 661-677, 2001.
2000
Heimann, M. and CCMLP Participants, The Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP), IGBP GAIM Research Newsletter, 4(1), 7-15, 2000.
Prentice, I.C., M. Heimann and S. Sitch, The carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere: ecosystem models and atmospheric observations, Ecological Applications, 10, 1553-1573, 2000.
Sitch, S., The role of vegetation dynamics in the control of atmospheric CO2 content Dissertation, Lund University, Lund, Sweden, 2000.
1999
(basic references for LPJ predecessors)
Cramer, W., D. W. Kicklighter, A. Bondeau, B. Moore III, G. Churkina, B. Nemry, A. Ruimy, A. L. Schloss and Participants of "Potsdam '95", Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): Overview and key results, Global Change Biology, 5, Suppl. 1, 1-15, 1999.
Fosberg, M. A., W. Cramer, V. Brovkin, R. Fleming, R. H. Gardner, A. M. Gill, J. G. Goldammer, R. Keane, P. Koehler, J. Lenihan, R. P. Neilson, S. Sitch, K. Thonicke, S. Venevski, M. G. Weber and U. Wittenberg, U. , Strategy for a fire module in dynamic global vegetation models, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 9, 79-84, 1999.
Kicklighter, D. W., M. Bruno, S. Doenges, G. Esser, M. Heimann, J. Helfrich, F. Ift, F. Joos, J. Kaduk, G. H. Kohlmaier, A. D. McGuire, J. M. Melillo, R. Meyer, B. Moore III, A. Nadler, I. C. Prentice, W. Sauf, A. L. Schloss, S. Sitch, U. Wittenberg and G. Würth, A first order analysis of the potential role of CO2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: A comparison study of four terrestrial biosphere models, Tellus, Ser. B, 51, 343-366, 1999.
Before 1999
Cramer, W., Using Plant Functional Types in a Global Vegetation Model, in: Smith, T. M., H. H. Shugart and F. I. Woodward (eds.): Plant Funtional Types: Their Relevance to Ecosystem Properties and Global Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 271-288, 1997.
Haxeltine, Alex and I. Colin Prentice, BIOME3: An equikibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10(4), 693-709, 1996.
Steffen, W. L., W. Cramer, M. Plöchl and H. Bugmann, Global Vegetation Models: Incorporating Transient Changes to Structure and Composition, Journal of Vegetation Science, 7(3), 321-328, 1996.
Cramer, W. (1994) Using plant functional types in a global vegetation model. PIK Report No.3, Potsdam, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Prentice IC, W. Cramer, S.P. Harrison, R. Leemans, R.A. Monserud and A. M. Solomon (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography. 19(2), 117-134.
