Nach Angaben des Disaster Management Centers (DMS) in Sri Lanka werden in jüngster Zeit Wetterextreme wie Überschwemmungen und Dürren immer häufiger beobachtet. Seit 2010 wurden in fast jedem Jahr Überschwemmungen und Erdrutsche durch einen starken Monsun verzeichnet. "Der Schaden im Jahr 2016 betrug 370 Millionen US-Dollar. Der aktuelle und prognostizierte zukünftige jährliche Schaden liegt zwischen 100 und 150 Millionen US-Dollar", sagte Eng. W.B. Palugaswewa, Direktor des Ministry Irrigation Department. "Das DMS braucht dringend eine langfristige Vorhersage von Beginn und Ende der Monsunzeit als wichtige Komponente für das Katastrophenmanagement", betonte der Generaldirektor für Bewässerung, Seenithamby Mohanarajah.
Prof. Sunil Wickramasuriya from General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University (KDU) had followed Elena Surovyatkina’s research and the last 3 years of successful long-term monsoon forecasts for India at PIK. By his efforts, the Government of Sri Lanka invited Surovyatkina to visit and discuss possibilities to translate the Indian experience of successful forecasts of monsoon timing to Sri Lanka. Several meetings with Senior Officials, lectures and following discussions at the Government and the KDU resulted in the conclusion that the forecast of the withdrawal date of monsoon from India provided by Surovyatkina can be applied immediately for Sri Lanka as a long term warning of approaching Winter monsoon.
Additional joint efforts needed to develop a regional forecast of monsoon for Sri Lanka
Taking into account that Elena Surovyatkina issues the forecast of the withdrawal date of monsoon from India at the end of July, the Government of Sri Lanka and in particular the Disaster Management Center will be informed on the date of the beginning of Winter monsoon in Sri Lanka 70 - 80 days in advance. “Such a monsoon forecast will help both the Government and private sector for planning the agriculture season, managing water resources during the cultivation that can save the water, prevent damages to the infrastructures and carrying out preventive measures in the system of dams in order to prevent floods”, said the Director of Irrigations Janaki Meegastenna.
The German Ambassador to Sri Lanka and the Maldives Jörn Rohde noted that the monsoon forecast was crucial for planning the duration touristic season as well. In particular, in 2018, the touristic season was closed on October 1, while winter monsoon started in November only – meaning a lost month for the tourism industry. The monsoon forecast was able to help both the Government and private companies to make informed decisions regarding the future growth of a sustainable Tourism sector, and for the millions of people who depend on it.
The visit of Elena Surovyatkina to Sri Lanka was a part of the PIK project EPICC and also supported by the World Bank project "Climate Resilience Improvement Project (CRIP)". The director of CRIP Eng. D.C.S. Elakanada said that the monsoon forecast would be crucial to reduce the vulnerability of exposed people and assets to climate risk and to improve the government's capacity to respond effectively to disasters.
Weblink to PIK’s information page on the Indian Monsoon Forecast: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/services/infodesk/forecasting-indian-monsoon
