Publications

For a more up-to-date list of publications of PIK's FutureLab ERAlab including DominoES project outputs see: here

In review and discussion (in 2021)

In press (in 2021)

• R. Winkelmann*, J.F. Donges*, E.K. Smith*, M. Milkoreit*, C. Eder, J. Heitzig, A. Katsanidou, M. Wiedermann, N. Wunderling, T.M. Lenton,
  Social tipping processes for climate action: a conceptual framework,
  Ecological Economics, in press (2021),
  preprint arXiv:2010.04488 [physics.soc-ph],
  preprint SSRN:3708161,
  * shared lead-authorship.
  
• J.F. Donges*/J. Lochner*, N. Kitzmann, J. Heitzig, S. Lehmann, M. Wiedermann, J. Vollmer,
  Dose-response functions and surrogate data models for exploring social contagion in the Copenhagen Networks Study,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics, in press (2021),
  preprint arxiv.org/abs/2103.09496 [physics.soc-ph],
  * shared lead authorship.
• J. Kohler, N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Vollmer,
  Complex networks of interacting stochastic tipping elements: cooperativity of phase separation in the large-system limit,
  Physical Review E, in press (2021),
  preprint arXiv:2104.09299 [physics.soc-ph].
  
• J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, J. Heitzig, W. Barfuss, S.E. Cornell, S.J. Lade, and M. Schlüter,
  Taxonomies for structuring models for World-Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social-ecological feedback loops,
  Earth System Dynamics, in press (2021),
  Discussion paper: DOI: 10.5194/esd-2018-27.
• P.M. Müller, J. Heitzig, J. Kurths, K. Lüdge, M. Wiedermann,
  Anticipation-induced social tipping - Can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics, in press (2021),
  preprint: arXiv:2012.01977 [physics.soc-ph].
  

2021

• I. Stadelmann-Steffen, C. Eder, N. Harring, G. Spilker, A. Katsanidou,
  A framework for social tipping in climate change mitigation: What we can learn about social tipping dynamics from the chlorofluorocarbons phase-out,
  Energy Research & Social Science 82, 102307 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2021.102307.
• V. Brovkin, E. Brook, J.H. Williams, S. Bathiany, T.M. Lenton, M. Barton,  R.M. DeConto, J.F. Donges, A. Ganopolski, J. McManus, S. Praetorius, A. de Vernal, A. Abe-­Ouchi, H. Cheng, M. Claussen, M. Crucifix, G. Gallopin, V. Iglesias, D.S. Kaufman, T. Kleinen, F. Lambert, S. van der Leeuw, H. Liddy, M.-­F. Loutre, D. McGee, K. Rehfeld, R. Rhodes, A. Seddon, M.H. Trauth, L. Vanderverken, Z. Yu,
  Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system,
  Nature Geoscience, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5.
• J. Bak-Coleman, M. Alfano, W. Barfuss, C. Bergstrom, M.A. Centeno, I.D. Couzin, J.F. Donges, M. Galesic, A. Gersick, J. Jacquet, A. Kao, R.E. Moran, P. Romanczuk, D.I. Rubenstein, K. Tombak, J.J. Van Bavel, E.U. Weber,
  Stewardship of global collective behavior,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 118, e2025764118 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2025764118.
• N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R. Winkelmann,
  Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming,
  Earth System Dynamics 12, 601–619 (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-601-2021,
  Discussion paper: DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-18.
• P.M. Müller, J. Heitzig, J. Kurths, K. Lüdge, M. Wiedermann,
  Anticipation-induced social tipping - Can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00011-5,
  preprint: arXiv:2012.01977 [physics.soc-ph].
• N. Wunderling, J. Krönke, V. Wohlfarth, J. Kohler, J. Heitzig, A. Staal, S. Willner, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00155-4,
  preprint arXiv:2011.02031 [physics.soc-ph].
• S.H.R. Rosier, R. Reese, J.F. Donges, J. De Rydt, G.H. Gudmundsson, R. Winkelmann,
  The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica,
  The Cryosphere 15, 1501–1516 (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021.
• I. Stadelmann-Steffen, C. Eder,
  Public opinion in policy contexts. A comparative analysis of domestic energy policies and individual policy preferences in Europe,
  International Political Science Review 42, 78-94 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1177/0192512120913047.

2020

• N. Wunderling, M. Gelbrecht, R. Winkelmann, J. Kurths, J.F. Donges,
  Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades,
  New Journal of Physics 22, 123031 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/abc98a,
  Preprint arXiv:2009.09902 [physics.ao-ph] (2020).
• M. Zeitz, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann,
  Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry,
  The Cryosphere 14, 3537–3550 (2020),
  DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020.
• N. Wunderling, M. Willeit, J.F. Donges, and R. Winkelmann,
  Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice,
  Nature Communications 11, 5177 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3,
  PIK press release.
  
• J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J.F. Donges, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann,
  The hysteresis of the Antarctic ice sheet,
  Nature 585, 538–544, (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5.
• M. Wiedermann, E.K. Smith, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
  A network-based microfoundation of Granovetter's threshold model for social tipping,
  Nature Scientific Reports 10, 11202 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67102-6,
  preprint arXiv:1911.04126 [physics.soc-ph].
• A.K. Klose, V. Karle, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate,
  Royal Society Open Science 7, 200599 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200599
  preprint arXiv:1910.12042 [physics.geo-ph].

• W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, V.V. Vasconcelos, J. Kurths, S.A. Levin,
  Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 117, 12915–12922 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1916545117,
  PIK news piece, SRC news piece.
  
• J.F. Donges*, J. Heitzig*, W. Barfuss, M. Wiedermann, J.A. Kassel, T. Kittel, J.J. Kolb, T. Kolster, F. Müller-Hansen, I.M. Otto, K.B. Zimmerer, and W. Lucht,
  Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World-Earth modeling framework,
  Earth System Dynamics 11, 395–413 (2020),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-395-2020,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship.
• J. Krönke, N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, A. Staal, B. Stumpf, O.A. Tuinenburg, J.F. Donges,
  Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks,
  Physical Review E 101, 042311 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311,
  preprint arXiv:1905.05476 [physics.soc-ph].
  

• E.K. Smith, C. Eder and A. Katsanidou,
  On thinning ice: understanding the knowledge, concerns and behaviors towards polar ice loss in Germany,
  Polar Geography 43, 243-258 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1080/1088937X.2020.1755904
  

• N. Wunderling*, B. Stumpf*, J. Krönke, A. Staal, O.A. Tuinenburg, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: linking micro- to macro-scales,
  Chaos 30, 043129 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1063/1.5142827,
  preprint arXiv:2001.02169 [nlin.AO],
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  AIP Scilight: Microscale rainforest interactions can result in vulnerabilities across large regions.
  
• I.M. Otto, J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Reply to Smith et al.: Social tipping dynamics in a world constrained by conflicting interests,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 117, 10631–10632 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002648117.
  
• I.M. Otto*, J.F. Donges*, R. Cremades, A. Bhowmik, R. Hewitt, W. Lucht, J. Rockström, F. Allerberger, S. Doe, A. Lenferna, M. McCaffrey, N. Morán, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS), 201900577 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900577117,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  PIK press release, SRC news, New York Times.

2019

• F. Geier, W. Barfuss, M. Wiedermann, J. Kurths, J.F. Donges,
  The physics of governance networks: critical transitions in contagion dynamics on multilayer adaptive networks with application to the sustainable use of renewable resources,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics 228, 2357–2369 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1140/epjst/e2019-900120-4,
  preprint arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1906.08679 [physics.soc-ph].
• I.M. Otto, M. Wiedermann, R. Cremades, J.F. Donges, C. Auer, W. Lucht,
  Human agency in the Anthropocene,
  Ecological Economics 167, 106463 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106463.
  
• E.K. Smith and A. Mayer,
  Anomalous Anglophones? Contours of free market ideology, political polarization, and climate change attitudes in English-speaking countries, Western European and post-Communist states,
  Climatic Change 152, 17-34 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2332-x

• A. Mayer and E.K. Smith,
  Unstoppable climate change? The influence of fatalistic beliefs about climate change on behavioural change and willingness to pay cross-nationally,
  Climate Policy 19, 511-523 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2018.1532872.
• L. Hempel and E.K. Smith,
  Evangelical Protestantism, Politics, and the Environment: When and How Do Biblical Beliefs Matter?,
  Society and Natural Resources (2019),
  DOI: 10.1080/08941920.2019.1664681.
• A. Mayer and E.K. Smith,
  Exploring the link between energy security and subjective well-being: a study of 22 nations,
  Energy, Sustainability and Society 9, 34 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1186/s13705-019-0216-1.

• W. Steffen, J. Rockström, K. Richardson, T.M. Lenton, C. Folke, D. Liverman, C.P. Summerhayes, A.D. Barnosky, S.E. Cornell, M. Crucifix, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, S.J. Lade, M. Scheffer, R. Winkelmann, and H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 115(33), 8252-8259 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115,
  PIK press release, SRC press release.
• W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, S.J. Lade, and J. Kurths,
  When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe,
  Nature Communications 9, 2354 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04738-z,
  Official PIK press release: better safe than sorry,
  Official SRC news release.
  
• C. Eder, E.K. Smith,
  A change in climate change attitudes (and behavior),
  Panel organized for the ECPR General Conference in Hamburg, August 22-25, 2018.
• E.K. Smith, L.M. Hempel, and K. MacIlroy,
  What’s ‘evangelical’got to do with it? Disentangling the impact of evangelical Protestantism on environmental outcomes,
  Environmental Politics 27(2), 292-319 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1080/09644016.2017.1384185.
• E.K. Smith and A. Mayer,
  A social trap for the climate? Collective action, trust and climate change risk perception in 35 countries,
  Global Environmental Change 49, 140-153 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.02.014.
• M. Milkoreit, J. Hodbod, J. Baggio, K. Benessaiah, R. Calderon Contreras, J.F. Donges, J.-D. Mathias, J. Rocha, M. Schoon, and S. Werners,
  Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship – an interdisciplinary literature review,
  Environmental Research Letters 13, 033005 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa75.
  

2017

• F. Müller-Hansen, M. Schlüter, M. Mäs, J.F. Donges, J.J. Kolb, K. Thonicke, and J. Heitzig,
  Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models – an overview of techniques and approaches,
  Earth System Dynamics 8, 977-1007 (2017),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-977-2017.
  
• P.P. Klamser, M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges, and R.V. Donner,
  Zealotry effects on opinion dynamics in the adaptive voter model,
  Physical Review E 96, 052315 (2017),
  DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.052315,
  Preprint: arxiv:1612.06644 [physics.soc-ph].
  
• J.F. Donges, R. Winkelmann, W. Lucht, S.E. Cornell, J.G. Dyke, J. Rockström, J. Heitzig, and H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Closing the loop: reconnecting human dynamics to Earth system science,
  The Anthropocene Review 4(2), 151-157 (2017),
  DOI: 10.1177/2053019617725537,
  News release (Stockholm Resilience Centre).

Relevant pre-DominoES publications

Ice sheet dynamics and climate tipping elements

• A. Levermann & R. Winkelmann
  A simple equation for the melt-elevation feedback of ice sheets
  The Cryosphere 10 (2016), DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016.
  
• H.J. Schellnhuber, S. Rahmstorf, R. Winkelmann
  Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris
  Nature Climate Change 6 (2016), DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3013.
• R. Winkelmann, A. Levermann, A. Ridgwell, K. Caldeira
  Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet
  Science Advances 1 (2015), DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500589.
• R. Winkelmann, M.A. Martin, M. Haseloff, T. Albrecht, E. Bueler, C. Khroulev, A. Levermann
  The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), Part 1: Model description
  The Cryosphere 5 (2011), 715-726, DOI: 10.5194/tc-5-715-2011.

Social network dynamics and tipping points

• C.-F. Schleussner*, J.F. Donges*, D.A. Engemann*, and A. Levermann,
  Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure,
  Nature Scientific Reports 6, 30790 (2016), DOI: 10.1038/srep30790,
  * The first three authors share the lead authorship.
  
• W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, M. Wiedermann, and W. Lucht,
  Sustainable use of renewable resources in a stylized social-ecological network model under heterogeneous resource distribution,
  Earth System Dynamics 8, 255-264 (2017), DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-255-2017.
• J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, F. Müller-Hansen, and W. Steffen,
  The Technosphere in Earth system analysis: a coevolutionary perspective,
  The Anthropocene Review 4(1), 23-33 (2017), DOI: 10.1177/2053019616676608.
• E. Scharwächter, E. Müller, J.F. Donges, M. Hassani, and T. Seidl,
  Detecting change processes in dynamic networks by frequent graph evolution rule mining,
  2016 IEEE 16th International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM), Barcelona, Spain, 2016, pp. 1191-1196, DOI: 10.1109/ICDM.2016.0158.
• M. Wiedermann, J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig, W. Lucht, and J. Kurths,
  Macroscopic description of complex adaptive networks co-evolving with dynamic node states,
  Physical Review E 91, 052801 (2015), DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.91.052801.
• S. Auer, J. Heitzig, U. Kornek, E. Schöll, and J. Kurths,
  The dynamics of coalition formation on complex networks,
  Nature Scientific Reports 5, 13386 (2015), DOI: 10.1038/srep13386.

Environmental attitudes, behaviors and activities

• Adam Mayer and E. Keith Smith. 2017. “Rethinking Economic Conditions and Environmental Attitudes Macroeconomic Effects, Individual Experiences, and Subjectivity”. Social Currents. doi 10.1177/2329496516670185
• Adam Mayer and E. Keith Smith. 2017. “Education, political affiliation and energy policy: A case of Tea Party exceptionalism?”. Energy Research & Social Science. doi 10.1016/j.erss.2016.12.002 
• Noel Strapko, Lynn M. Hempel, Kelsea MacIlroy, E. Keith Smith. 2016. “Gender Differences in Environmental Concern: Reevaluating Gender Socialization”. Society and Natural Resources 29(9): 1015-1031. doi 10.1080/08941920.2016.1138563
• Lynn M. Hempel, Kelsea MacIlroy, E. Keith Smith. 2014. “Framing the Environment: The Cornwall Alliance, Laissez-faire Environmentalism, and the Green Dragon”. Journal of the Sociology and Theory of Religion 3: 2-31.
• Gemenis, Kostas, Katsanidou, Alexia and Vasilopoulou, Sofia (2012). The politics of anti-environmentalism in Europe: positional issue framing by radical right parties. In: Midwest Political Science Association. Chicago.

Political participation and trust in governance

• Otjes, Simon and Katsanidou, Alexia. 2016. Beyond Kriesiland: EU Integration as a super-issue after the Eurocrisis. European Journal of Political Research online first 10.1111/1475-6765.12177
• Katsanidou, Alexia and Otjes, Simon. 2015. How the European debt crisis reshaped national political space: the case of Greece. European Union Politics. 17(2) pp.262-284 
• Katsanidou, Alexia, and Christina Eder. 2015. "'Vote, Party or Protest: The Influence of Confidence in Political Institutions on Various Modes of Political Participation in Europe." Comparative European Politics online first. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/cep.2015.27.
• Eder, Christina, Ingvill C. Mochmann, and Markus Quandt, ed. 2014. Political trust and disenchantment with politics: international perspectives. International studies in sociology and social anthropology 125. Leiden: Brill.
• Eder, Christina, and Alexia Katsanidou. 2014. "When citizens lose faith: political trust and political participation." In Political trust and disenchantment with politics: international perspectives , edited by Christina Eder, Ingvill C. Mochmann, and Markus Quandt, International Studies in Sociology and Social Anthropology 125, 83-108. Leiden: Brill.
• Katsanidou, Alexia and Nezi, Roula. 2014. From valence to position: economic voting in extraordinary conditions. Acta Politica, 49 (4), pp. 413–430. Impact Factor: 1.025

• Hamann, Kerstin, Johnston, Alison, Katsanidou, Alexia, Kelly, John and Pollock, P. H. 2014. Sharing the Rewards, Dividing the Costs? The Electoral Consequences of Social Pacts and Legislative Reform in Western Europe. West European Politics., doi: 10.1080/01402382.2014.911481 Impact Factor: 1.576
• Lefkofridi, Zoe and Katsanidou, Alexia. 2014. Multilevel representation in the European Parliament. European Union Politics, 15(1), pp. 108-131
  
• Eder, Christina. 2013. "Warum haben Sie nicht gewählt? Eine Analyse der Bundestagswahl 2009." In Koalitionen, Kandidaten, Kommunikation: Analysen zur Bundestagswahl 2009, edited by Thorsten Faas, Kai Arzheimer, Sigrid Roßteutscher, and Bernhard Weßels, 17-39. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.