Forecast of withdrawal of Indian Summer Monsoon proves once more successful

The heavy summer rains are very important for millions of Indian farmers feeding the subcontinent’s population. Future climate change will likely affect monsoon stability and hence makes accurate forecasting even more relevant. Surovyatkina and her team at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have developed a novel approach, using analysis of spatial organized critical phenomena, an advanced mathematical approach, combined with statistical data of interannual variability in monsoon onset and withdrawal dates.

This year, heavy rainfall and wind warnings continued until 14th of October and isolated rains in Central part of India lasted until October 18th. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the Southwest Monsoon withdrew from the entire country October 21. Thus, the original prediction (“October 18 +/- 5 days”) for this rather late withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon was correct.The Indian Meteorological Department and the meteorological community have acknowledged the new approach, Elena Surovyatkina has become a member of the Indian Meteorological Society.