E-fuels likely to remain scarce for a long time: PIK analysis paper

PIK researcher Falko Ueckerdt comments: "E-fuels are likely to be in short supply for a long time to come. Even if the market ramp-up happens as fast as with the growth champion solar photovoltaics, the global supply in 2035 would not even be sufficient to cover the indispensable German needs for aviation, shipping and chemicals."

E-fuels are not yet commercially available today. To date, there are very few demonstration plants worldwide. About 60 new e-fuel projects are currently announced by 2035, of which only about 1 percent have been secured with a final investment decision. All of these global projects together would only meet about 10 percent of Germany's indispensable e-fuel needs. With mandatory quotas for e-fuels in aviation and shipping, policymakers have a set screw to accelerate the e-fuel market ramp-up.