Achieving prosperity for planet and people requires fair resource sharing and addressing inequality: New Earth Commission study

“For the first time, scientists have quantified safety and justice using the same units in order to determine the path forward to a stable and resilient future in which we can all thrive”, explains PIK director Johan Rockström. “This paper shows that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people. It looks at the risk for further decline of the Earth system, the harm communities are experiencing as a result, but also seeks to identify how resources need to be fairly distributed. Communities across the world, rich and poor, are already vulnerable and will become more exposed - but we have a window to act now and change course.”

‘Safe and Just Space’: Balance Between Earth's Limits and human well-being

The study defines the 'Safe and Just Space' as the area between the ‘environmental ceiling’ (the limits within which Earth's systems remain stable) and the ‘social foundation’ (the minimum resources needed for a dignified life). The team of scientists made projections of this space forward to 2050, and found that the Safe and Just Space will shrink. For climate specifically, they found that if significant changes, like reducing emissions, aren’t made now, there will be no Safe and Just Space left by 2050. This would imply the Earth being outside the climate boundary and facing the risk of crossing tipping points.
According to the research team, to ensure that everyone on the planet has access to the resources necessary for a basic standard of living in 2050 and for the climate boundary to stay intact, energy, food and urban systems need to be transformed. Cities and businesses are well-positioned to lead these efforts, the researchers state.
Finally, the research identifies countries where Safe and Just Boundaries are breached and highlights the vulnerability of populations exposed to climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, and water shortages. Examples include communities in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil, and Germany, that the poorest are already the most affected, but everyone is at increasing risk.

The paper builds on last year's Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries paper published in the scientific journal Nature.

Earth Commission: This study has been carried out by the Earth Commission, an international team of social and natural scientists engaging over 60 experts, coordinated by a scientific secretariat hosted by Future Earth – the world’s largest network of sustainability scientists. The Earth Commission is currently chaired by Prof. Fatima Denton and Prof. Johan Rockström and is the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance.