Improving the evidence: PIK scientists review quantitative climate migration literature

 “Research methods shape our understanding of climate migration. We reviewed almost 130 empirical studies on climate migration from a methodological perspective, identified challenges and finally provided methodological recommendations based on the state-of-the-art approaches on how to study the climate migration association,” explains PIK scientist Barbora Sedova, who conducted the study together with Kira Vinke and Roman Hoffmann.

While the majority of studies agree that climatic conditions are important for migration, their results vary substantially. This makes it challenging to establish when and under which conditions climate migration occurs. One reason for the heterogeneity of the findings are, according to the study authors, differences in the empirical approaches employed in the analyses.

The scientists provide an overview of common methodological approaches and present evidence on their potential implications for the estimation of climatic impacts. They also identify five key challenges, which relate to the measurement of migration and climatic events, the integration and aggregation of data, the identification of causal relationships, and the exploration of contextual influences and mechanisms.

Finally, the review has also important implications for policy-makers and practitioners working on climate migration. Barbora Sedova underlines: “By highlighting the manifold challenges that exist, we want to make users aware of too simplistic interpretations of findings as well as conclusions. The relationships underlying climate-migration are complex and – as our meta-analyses show – driven by a range of factors. As the threats of climate change to local livelihoods are getting increasingly severe, more solution and policy-oriented research is needed, involving different stakeholders, including researchers from the Global South and representatives of communities directly affected by climate change.”