Perspektiven der Klimaänderung bis 2050 für den Weinbau in Deutschland (Klima 2050) - Schlußbericht zum FDW-Vorhaben: Klima 2050
M. Stock, F. Badeck, F.-W. Gerstengarbe, D. Hoppmann, T. Kartschall, H. Österle, P. C. Werner, M. Wodinski (Juni 2007)
Regional climate scenarios for German viticultural areas
for the time periods 1951-2000 (basis scenario derived from observation
data) and 2001-2050 (future scenario) compiled for the A1B emissions
scenario were developed using the regional statistic climate model
STAR. Climatic developments were analysed for 11 meteorological
variables and for special days.
Possible changes in the German viticulture
were investigated using a thermal index (HUGLIN). A general tendency
indicated a northbound shift of viticultural areas as well as an ascent
to higher elevations.
Model-supported investigations of grapevine phenology
were done by coupling the climate scenarios with a model for the
phenology (for cv. Riesling). Model runs were used to evaluate changes
in the three investigation areas. As a general tendency an
acceleration of all phenological phases was noted.
Evaluation of climatic variables relevant to viticulture
was performed for the individual phenological phases. The results
indicated critical changes including, e.g., an increasing probability
of the occurrence of tropical nights (Tmin ≥ 20°C) which would
potentially endanger the character of the Riesling, and an increased
probability of humid conditions during maturation, with the danger of
higher pest load.
For the development of adjustment strategies,
dialogue with experts from practice and research was suggested as means
to identify possible measures and to evaluate remaining chances and
risks, with a focus on individual cases.
An extension of the
investigations to further viticulture regions is planned, paying
special attention to changes in the complex system climate grapevine
pests. The results of expert-led stakeholder dialogue will induce the
development of adjustment strategies for specific viticulture regions.
Gefördert durch:
Mitglied der:
Mitglied der: