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copan reader 2013–2021: a curated paper collection
Donges, J. F., Heitzig, J. (Eds.), World-Earth Dynamics in the Anthropocene: A Copan Reader 2013 - 2021 (2021), 1st edition, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, DOI: 10.48485/pik.2021.004
Special Issue in Earth System Dynamics
We have organized a Special Issue entitled Social dynamics and planetary boundaries in Earth system modelling in the increasingly highly reputed, ISI-listed journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD), published by the European Geosciences Union (EGU). Timeline: 2014–2018. Guest Editors: W. Lucht, J.F. Donges, A. Kleidon, S. Cornell, J. Dyke, M. Sivapalan, and J.J. Finnigan
Copan papers submitted, in review and discussion
- Schuster, A., Lindner, M., Otto, I.M.,
Whose house is on fire? Identifying socio-demographic and housing characteristics driving differences in the UK household emissions,
in review,
preprint: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4000231 - S. Bien, P. Schultz, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
Resilience basins of complex systems: an application to prosumer impacts on power grids,
in review (2021),
preprint arXiv:2108.09474 [physics.soc-ph]. - M. Wiedermann*/E.K. Smith*, J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig, R. Winkelmann,
Concern and anticipation of sea-level rise provide grounds for social tipping towards climate action,
subm. (2021),
* shared lead-authorship.
-
F. Schunck, M. Wiedermann, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
A dynamic network model of societal complexity and resilience inspired by Tainter's theory of collapse,
in review (2021),
preprint arXiv.org/abs/2102.06698 [physics.soc-ph].
- Network dynamics of drought-induced tipping cascades in the Amazon rainforest,
in review (2020),
Preprint Research Square, DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-71039/v1,
*These authors jointly supervised this study. - L.A. Tamberg, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
A modeler's guide to studying the resilience of social-technical-environmental systems,
Preprint arXiv:2007.05769 [physics.soc-ph] (2020). - J. Heitzig,
Efficient Non-Cooperative Provision of Costly Positive Externalities via Conditional Commitments,
under revision (2019). - B. Ewers*, J.F. Donges*, J. Heitzig, S. Peterson,
Divestment may burst the carbon bubble if investors' beliefs tip to anticipating strong future climate policy,
in review (2019),
preprint arxiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1902.07481,
* Shared lead-authorship. - Wiedermann, M, Winkelmann, R, Donges, JF, Eder, C, Heitzig, J, Katsandiou, A, Smith, EK,
Can Antarctica tip climate policy?,
in review (2019),
preprint arXiv:1911.10063 [physics.soc-ph]. - Lade, SJ, Bodin, Ö, Donges, JF, Kautsky, EE, Galafassi, D, Olsson, P, and Schlüter, M (2017),
Modelling social-ecological transformations: an adaptive network proposal,
Preprint: arXiv:1704.06135 [nlin.AO],
in review, 2017. - Arndt, P, Donges, JF, and Heitzig, J (2016),
The Great Acceleration: timing a high-potential candidate for responsibly defining the onset of the Anthropocene,
in review.
Copan papers (peer-reviewed)
2022
- N.H. Kitzmann, P. Romanczuk, N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges,
Detecting contagious spreading of urban innovations on the global city network,
European Physical Journal Special Topics, online first (2022),
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00470-4,
preprint arXiv:2111.05709 [physics.soc-ph]. - R. Winkelmann*/J.F. Donges*/E.K. Smith*/M. Milkoreit*, C. Eder, J. Heitzig, A. Katsanidou, M. Wiedermann, N. Wunderling, T.M. Lenton,
Social tipping processes for climate action: a conceptual framework,
Ecological Economics 192, 107242 (2022),
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242,
preprint arXiv:2010.04488 [physics.soc-ph],
preprint SSRN:3708161,
* shared lead-authorship.
2021
- Helfmann, L., Heitzig, J., Koltai, P., Kurths, J., Schütte, C.,
Statistical analysis of tipping pathways in agent-based models,
Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 230, 3249–3271 (2021),
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00191-0. - A.K. Klose, N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'?,
Environmental Research Letters 16, 125011 (2021),
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955,
preprint arXiv:2108.09550 [physics.geo-ph]. - Donges, JF, Lucht, W, Heitzig, J, Barfuss, W, Cornell, SE, Lade, SJ, Schlüter, M,
Taxonomies for structuring models for World-Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social-ecological feedback loops,
Earth System Dynamics 12, 1115–1137 (2021),
DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021. - N. Marwan, J.F. Donges, R.V. Donner, D. Eroglu,
Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records,
Quaternary Science Reviews 274, 107245 (2021),
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107245. - O. Chu, J.F. Donges, G. Pop-Eleches, G.B. Robertson,
The microdynamics of spatial polarization: a model and an application to survey data from Ukraine,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) (2021),
DOI: . - J.F. Donges*/J. Lochner*, N. Kitzmann, J. Heitzig, S. Lehmann, M. Wiedermann, J. Vollmer,
Dose-response functions and surrogate data models for exploring social contagion in the Copenhagen Networks Study,
European Physical Journal Special Topics 230, 3311–3334 (2021),
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00279-7,
preprint arxiv.org/abs/2103.09496 [physics.soc-ph],
* shared lead authorship. - J. Kohler, N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Vollmer,
Complex networks of interacting stochastic tipping elements: cooperativity of phase separation in the large-system limit,
Physical Review E 104, 044301 (2021),
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.104.044301,
preprint arXiv:2104.09299 [physics.soc-ph]. - A. Schuster, I.M. Otto,
Socio-metabolic class conflicts in the Anthropocene: Developing a novel class theory based on German population data,
Capitalism Nature Socialism, in press (2021).
- Kittel, T, Müller-Hansen, F, Koch, R, Heitzig, J, Deffuant, G, Mathias, J-D, Kurths, J
From lakes and glades to viability algorithms: Automatic classification of system states according to the Topology of Sustainable Management,
EPJ ST (2021),
DOI:10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00262-2
Preprint: arXiv:1706.04542 [math.OC]. - L. Helfmann, N.D. Conrad, A. Djurdjevac, S. Winkelmann, C. Schütte,
From interacting agents to density-based modeling with stochastic PDEs,
EPJ ST (2021),
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00191-0,
- V. Brovkin, E. Brook, J.H. Williams, S. Bathiany, T.M. Lenton, M. Barton, R.M. DeConto, J.F. Donges, A. Ganopolski, J. McManus, S. Praetorius, A. de Vernal, A. Abe-Ouchi, H. Cheng, M. Claussen, M. Crucifix, G. Gallopin, V. Iglesias, D.S. Kaufman, T. Kleinen, F. Lambert, S. van der Leeuw, H. Liddy, M.-F. Loutre, D. McGee, K. Rehfeld, R. Rhodes, A. Seddon, M.H. Trauth, L. Vanderverken, Z. Yu,
Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system,
Nature Geoscience, online first (2021),
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5. - Y.M. Asano, J.J. Kolb, J. Heitzig, J.D. Farmer (2019),
Emergent inequality and business cycles in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) ,
Preprint arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.02155 - J. Bak-Coleman, M. Alfano, W. Barfuss, C. Bergstrom, M.A. Centeno, I.D. Couzin, J.F. Donges, M. Galesic, A. Gersick, J. Jacquet, A. Kao, R.E. Moran, P. Romanczuk, D.I. Rubenstein, K. Tombak, J.J. Van Bavel, E.U. Weber,
Stewardship of global collective behavior,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS)
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2025764118. (2021), - N. Wunderling, J. Krönke, V. Wohlfarth, J. Kohler, J. Heitzig, A. Staal, S. Willner, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package,
European Physical Journal Special Topics, online first (2021),
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00155-4,
preprint arXiv:2011.02031 [physics.soc-ph]. - P.M. Müller, J. Heitzig, J. Kurths, K. Lüdge, M. Wiedermann,
Anticipation-induced social tipping - Can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?,
European Physical Journal Special Topics, online first (2021),
DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00011-5,
preprint: arXiv:2012.01977 [physics.soc-ph]. - N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R. Winkelmann,
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming,
Earth System Dynamics 12, 601–619 (2021),
DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-601-2021,
Discussion paper: DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-18. - T. Holstein, M. Wiedermann, J. Kurths,
Optimization of coupling and global collapse in diffusively coupled socio-ecological resource exploitation networks,
New Journal of Physics 23, 033027 (2021),
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/abe0db,
preprint: arXiv:2010.13466 [physics.soc-ph].
-
P. Censkowsky, I.M. Otto,
Understanding Regime Shifts in Social-Ecological Systems Using Data on Direct Ecosystem Service Use,
Frontiers in Environmental Science 19 (2021),
DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2021.695348.
2020
- J.J. Kolb, F. Müller-Hansen, J. Kurths, J. Heitzig,
Macroscopic approximation methods for the analysis of adaptive networked agent-based models: Example of a two-sector investment model,
Physical Review E 102, 042311 (2020),
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.102.042311
Preprint arXiv:1909.13758 [econ.TH] [nlin.AO] - N. Wunderling, M. Gelbrecht, R. Winkelmann, J. Kurths, J.F. Donges,
Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades,
New Journal of Physics 22, 123031 (2020),
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/abc98a,
Preprint arXiv:2009.09902 [physics.ao-ph] (2020). - L. Helfmann, E.R. Borrell, C. Schütte, P. Koltai,
Extending Transition Path Theory: Periodically-Driven and Finite-Time Dynamics,
Journal of Nonlinear Science 30, 3321–3366 (2020),
DOI: 10.1007/s00332-020-09652-7,
preprint arXiv:2002.07474 [math.DS] (2020). - N. Wunderling, M. Willeit, J.F. Donges, and R. Winkelmann,
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice,
Nature Communications 11, 5177 (2020),
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3,
PIK press release. - J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J.F. Donges, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann,
The hysteresis of the Antarctic ice sheet,
Nature 585, 538–544, (2020),
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5. - M. Wiedermann, E.K. Smith, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
A network-based microfoundation of Granovetter's threshold model for social tipping,
Nature Scientific Reports 10, 11202 (2020),
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67102-6,
preprint arXiv:1911.04126 [physics.soc-ph]. - A.K. Klose, V. Karle, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate,
Royal Society Open Science 7, 200599 (2020),
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200599
preprint arXiv:1910.12042 [physics.geo-ph].
- J.-D. Mathias, M. Debeljak, G. Deffuant, A. Diemer, F. Dierickx, J.F. Donges, G. Gladkykh, J. Heitzig, G. Holtz, W. Obergassel, F. Pellaud, A. Sánchez, A. Trajanov, N. Videira,
Grounding social foundations for Integrated Assessment Models of climate change,
Earth's Future 8, e2020EF001573 (2020),
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001573. - W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, V.V. Vasconcelos, J. Kurths, S.A. Levin,
Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 117, (2020)
DOI: ,
PIK news piece, SRC news piece. - Donges*, JF, Heitzig*, J, Barfuss, W, Wiedermann, M, Kassel, JA, Kittel, T, Kolb, JJ, Kolster, T, Müller-Hansen, F, Otto, IM, Zimmerer, KB, Lucht, W,
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World-Earth modeling framework,
Earth System Dynamics 11, 395–413 (2020),
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-395-2020,
* The first two authors share the lead authorship. - J. Krönke, N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, A. Staal, B. Stumpf, O.A. Tuinenburg, J.F. Donges,
Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks,
Physical Review E 101, 042311 (2020),
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311,
preprint arXiv:1905.05476 [physics.soc-ph]. - N. Wunderling*, B. Stumpf*, J. Krönke, A. Staal, O.A. Tuinenburg, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: linking micro- to macro-scales,
Chaos 30, 043129 (2020),
DOI: 10.1063/1.5142827,
preprint arXiv:2001.02169 [nlin.AO],
* The first two authors share the lead authorship,
AIP Scilight: Microscale rainforest interactions can result in vulnerabilities across large regions. - T. Ide, C. Fröhlich, J.F. Donges,
The Economic, Political, and Social Implications of Environmental Crises,
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) 101, E364–E367 (2020),
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0257.1. - T. Ide, M. Brzoska, J.F. Donges, C.-F. Schleussner,
Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk,
Global Environmental Change 62, 102063 (2020),
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063. - M. Mahecha, F. Gans, G. Brandt, R. Christiansen, S.E. Cornell, N. Fomferra, G. Kraemer, J. Peters, G. Camps-Valls, J.F. Donges, W. Dorigo, L. Estupinan-Suarez, V. Gutierrez-Velez, M. Gutwin, M. Jung, M. Londono, D. Miralles, P. Papastefanou, M. Reichstein,
Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics,
Earth System Dynamics 11, 201–234 (2020),
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-201-2020. - S.J. Lade, W. Steffen, W. de Vries, S.R. Carpenter, J.F. Donges, D. Gerten, H. Hoff, T. Newbold, K. Richardson, J. Rockström,
Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions,
Nature Sustainability 3, 119–128 (2020),
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4,
PIK press release, SRC press release. - I.M. Otto, J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, H.J. Schellnhuber,
Reply to Smith et al.: Social tipping dynamics in a world constrained by conflicting interests,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 117, 10631–10632 (2020),
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002648117. - I.M. Otto*, J.F. Donges*, R. Cremades, A. Bhowmik, R. Hewitt, W. Lucht, J. Rockström, F. Allerberger, S. Doe, A. Lenferna, M. McCaffrey, N. Morán, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J. Schellnhuber,
Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) (2020),
DOI:
* The first two authors share the lead authorship,
PIK press release, SRC news, New York Times. - I.M. Otto, M. Wiedermann, R. Cremades, J.F. Donges, C. Auer, W. Lucht,
Human agency in the Anthropocene,
Ecological Economics 167, 106463 (2020),
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106463. - K. Kornhuber, D. Coumou, E. Vogel, C. Lesk, J.F. Donges, J. Lehmann, R. Horton,
Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions,
Nature Climate Change 10, 48–53 (2020),
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0637-z,
PIK press release.
- Z.W. Kundzewicz, P. Matczak, I.M. Otto, P.E. Otto,
From "atmosfear" to climate action,
Environmental Science and Policy 105, 75–83 (2020),
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2019.12.012.
2019
- F.M. Strnad, W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig,
Deep reinforcement learning in World-Earth system models to discover sustainable management strategies,
Chaos 29, 123122 (2019),
DOI: 10.1063/1.5124673,
preprint arXiv:1908.05567 [physics.soc-ph] [cs.LG],
PIK news item. -
S.J. Lade, J. Norberg, J.M. Anderies, C. Beer, S.E. Cornell, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, T. Gasser, K. Richardson, J. Rockström, W. Steffen,
Potential feedbacks between loss of biosphere integrity and climate change,
Global Sustainability 2, e21 (2019),
DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.18. -
J. Randers, J. Rockström, P.-E. Stoknes, U. Goluke, D. Collste, S.E. Cornell, and J.F. Donges,
Achieving the 17 sustainable development goals within 9 planetary boundaries,
Global Sustainability 2, e24 (2019),
DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.22,
Preprint: EarthArXiv:10.31223/osf.io/xwevb,
SRC news item and video. -
Hewitt, R.J., Bradley, N., Baggio Compagnucci, A., Barlagne, C., Ceglarz, A., Cremades, R., McKeen, M., Otto, I.M., Slee, B. (2019). Social innovation in community energy in Europe: A review of the evidence. Frontiers in Energy Research, 7(31): 1-27.
- Suatmadi, A.Y, Creutzig, F., Otto, I.M., (2019) On-demand motorcycle taxis improve mobility, not sustainability. Case Studies on Transportation Policy, 7(2): 218-229.
- F. Geier, W. Barfuss, M. Wiedermann, J. Kurths, J.F. Donges,
The physics of governance networks: critical transitions in contagion dynamics on multilayer adaptive networks with application to the sustainable use of renewable resources,
European Physical Journal Special Topics 228, 2357–2369 (2019),
DOI: 10.1140/epjst/e2019-900120-4,
preprint arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1906.08679 [physics.soc-ph]. - A.S. Downing, A. Bhowmik, D. Collste, S. Cornell, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, T. Häyhä, J. Hinton, S. Lade, W.M. Mooij,
Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science,
Environmental Research Letters 14, 073005 (2019),
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22c9.
-
Barfuss, W, Donges, JF, Kurths, J (2019),
Deterministic limit of temporal difference reinforcement learning for stochastic games,
Physical Review E 99, 043305 (2019),
PRE editor's choice,
PIK news release: New method to better understand much-employed self-learning Artificial Intelligence,
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.043305,
Preprint: arXiv:1809.07225.
- Otto, IM, Mi, KM, Dubrovsky, K, Lucht, W (2019),
Shift the focus from the super-poor to the super-rich,
Nature Climate Change 9, 82-84 (2019),
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0402-3. - Müller-Hansen, F, Heitzig, J, Donges, JF, Cardoso, M, Dalla-Nora, E, Andrade, P, Kurths, J, Thonicke, K (2019),
Can intensification of cattle ranching reduce deforestation in the Amazon? Insights from an agent-based social-ecological model,
Ecological Economics 159, 198-211 (2019),
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.12.025.
2018
- Steffen, W, Rockström, J, Richardson, K, Lenton, TM, Folke, C, Liverman, D, Summerhayes, CP, Barnosky, AD, Cornell, SE, Crucifix, M, Donges, JF, Fetzer, I, Lade, SJ, Scheffer, M, Winkelmann, R, Schellnhuber, HJ (2018),
Trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene,
DOI: , SRC press release. - Barfuss, W, Donges, JF, Lade, SJ, Kurths, J (2018),
When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe,
Nature Communications 9, 2354 (2018),
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04738-z,
Official PIK press release: better safe than sorry,
Official SRC news release. - Heitzig, J, Barfuss, W, Donges, JF (2018),
A thought experiment on sustainable management of the Earth system,
Sustainability 10(6), 1947 (2018),
DOI: 10.3390/su10061947. - Lade, SJ, Donges, JF, Fetzer, I, Anderies, M, Beer, C, Cornell, SE, Gasser, T, Norberg, J, Richardson, K, Rockström, J, Steffen, W (2018),
Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing,
Earth System Dynamics 9, 507-523 (2018),
DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-507-2018,
Discussion paper: Earth System Dynamics Discussions (2017), DOI: 10.5194/esd-2017-78. - Milkoreit, M, Hodbod, J, Baggio, J, Benessaiah, K, Calderon Contreras, R, Donges, JF, Mathias, J-D, Rocha, J, Schoon, M, Werners, S (2018),
Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship – an interdisciplinary literature review,
Environmental Research Letters 13, 033005 (2018),
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa75. - Heitzig, J, Kornek, U (2018),
Bottom-Up Linking of Carbon Markets Under Farsighted Cap
Coordination and Reversibility,
Nature Climate Change 8, 204-209 (2018),
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0079-z,
Official PIK news item: Coalition-building for pricing CO2 could make sense even for egoistic countries,
Further reading: Blog post for COP21 conference in Paris,
Related older copan article: The dynamics of coalition formation on complex networks. - Reinhardt, J., Liersch, S., Arbi Abdeladhim, M., Diallo, M., Dickens, C., Fournet, S., Hattermann, F.F., Kabaseke, C., Muhumuza, M., Mul, M.L., Pilz, T., Otto, I.M., Walz, A. (2018),
Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: evidence from four case studies in Africa,
Ecology and Society 23(1), 5 (2018),
DOI: 10.5751/ES-09728-230105. - Kundzewicz, Z.W., Hov, O, Piniewski, M., Krysanova, V., Benestad, R.E., Otto, I.M. (2018),
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources,
Environmental Science and Policy 79, 1-8 (2018),
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2017.10.008. - Pham, L., Otto, I.M., Zikos, D. (2018),
Self-governance and the effects of rules in irrigation systems: Evidence from laboratory and framed field experiments in China, India and Vietnam,
Water Economics and Policy, in press (2018),
DOI: 10.1142/S2382624X18500091.
2017
- Klamser, PP, Wiedermann, M, Donges, JF, Donner, RV (2017),
Zealotry effects on opinion dynamics in the adaptive voter model,
Physical Review E 96, 052315 (2017),
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.052315,
Preprint: arXiv:1612.06644 [physics.soc-ph]. - Müller-Hansen, F, Schlüter, M, Mäs, M, Donges, JF, Kolb, JJ, Thonicke, K, Heitzig, J (2017),
Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models – an overview of techniques and approaches,
Earth System Dynamics 8, 977-1007 (2017),
DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-977-2017,
Discussion paper: Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2017, DOI: 10.5194/esd-2017-18.
- Wiedermann, M, Donges, JF, Donner, RV, Kurths, J (2017),
Mapping and discrimination of networks in the complexity-entropy plane,
Physical Review E 96, 042304 (2017),
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.042304,
Preprint: arxiv:1704.07599 [physics.data-an]. - Donges*, JF, Winkelmann*, R, Lucht, W, Cornell, SE, Dyke, JG, Rockström, J, Heitzig, J, and Schellnhuber, HJ (2017),
Closing the loop: reconnecting human dynamics to Earth system science,
The Anthropocene Review 4(2), 151-157 (2017),
DOI: 10.1177/2053019617725537,
* The first two authors share the lead authorship,
News release (Stockholm Resilience Centre). - Kittel, T, Heitzig, J, Webster, K, and Kurths, J (2017),
Timing of transients: quantifying reaching times and transient behavior in complex systems,
New Journal of Physics 19, 083005 (2017),
Preprint: arXiv.org:1611.07565 [nlin.CD] (2016). - Donges, JF, Barfuss, W (2017),
From math to metaphors and back again. Social-ecological resilience from a multi-agent-environment perspective,
GAIA 26(S1), 182–190 (2017),
DOI: 10.14512/gaia.26.S1.5. - Nitzbon J, Heitzig J, Parlitz U (2017),
Sustainability, collapse and oscillations in a simple World-Earth model,
Environmental Research Letters 12, 074020 (2017),
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7581.
Preprint: arXiv:1702.01050 [physics.soc-ph] (2017). - Barfuss, W, Donges, JF, Wiedermann, M, and Lucht, W,
Sustainable use of renewable resources in a stylized social-ecological network model under heterogeneous resource distribution,
Earth System Dynamics 8, 255-264 (2017),
DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-255-2017,
Discussion Paper: Earth System Dynamics Discussions (2016), DOI: 10.5194/esd-2016-15. - Müller-Hansen, F, Cardoso, MF, Dalla-Nora, EL, Donges, JF, Heitzig, J, Kurths, J, and Thonicke, K,
A matrix clustering method to explore patterns of land-cover transitions in satellite-derived maps of the Brazilian Amazon,
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 24, 113-123 (2017),
DOI: 10.5194/npg-24-113-2017,
Discussion Paper: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions, 2016, DOI: 10.5194/npg-2016-53. - Otto, IM, Reckien, D, Reyer, CPO, Marcus, R, Le Masson, V, Jones, L, Norton, A, and Serdeczny, O,
Social vulnerability to climate change: A review of concepts and evidence,
Regional Environmental Change 17(6), 1651–1662 (2017),
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-017-1105-9. - Donges, JF, Lucht, W, Müller-Hansen, F, and Steffen, W,
The Technosphere in Earth system analysis: a coevolutionary perspective,
The Anthropocene Review 4(1), 23-33 (2017),
DOI: 10.1177/2053019616676608,
Preprint: arXiv:1704.06476 [physics.soc-ph].
2016
- Heck, V, Donges, JF, and Lucht, W (2016),
Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal,
Earth System Dynamics 7, 783-796 (2016),
DOI: 10.5194/esd-7-783-2016,
Discussion paper: Earth System Dynamics Discussions (2016), DOI: 10.5194/esd-2016-22. - Scharwächter, E, Müller, E, Donges, JF, Hassani, M, and Seidl, T, (2016),
Detecting change processes in dynamic networks by frequent graph evolution rule mining,
2016 IEEE 16th International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM), Barcelona, Spain, 2016, pp. 1191-1196,
DOI: 10.1109/ICDM.2016.0158. - Schellnhuber, HJ, Serdeczny, OM, Adams, S, Köhler, C, Otto, IM, Schleussner, CF (2016).
The Challenge of a 4 °C World by 2100.
In Brauch, H.G., Oswald Spring, U., Grin, J., Scheffran, J. (Eds.): Handbook on Sustainability Transition and Sustainable Peace. Springer International Publishing Switzerland, 267-283,
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-43884-9_11. - Schleussner*, C-F, Donges*, JF, Engemann*, DA, and Levermann, A (2016),
Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure,
Nature Scientific Reports 6, 30790 (2016),
DOI: 10.1038/srep30790,
Preprint: arXiv.org:1512.05013 [physics.soc-ph] (2015),
* The first three authors share the lead authorship. -
Schleussner, C-F, Donges, JF, Donner, RV, and Schellnhuber, HJ (2016),
Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 113(33) (2016), 9216–9221,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1601611113,
PIK press release,
Guardian article, Climate Central article, Süddeutsche Zeitung report,
JFD explaining "How Do Climate Change Related Natural Disasters Potentially Increase the Risk of Armed Conflicts?" (video thanks to Latest Thinking).
- Hellmann, F, Schultz, P, Grabow, C, Heitzig, J, and Kurths, J (2016),
Survivability of deterministic dynamical systems,
Nature Scientific Reports 6, 29654,
DOI: 10.1038/srep29654. -
Donges, JF, Schleussner, C-F, Siegmund, JF, and Donner, RV (2016),
Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series: on the role of flood events as triggers of epidemic outbreaks,
European Physical Journal Special Topics, 225(3), 471-487,
DOI: 10.1140/epjst/e2015-50233-y,
Preprint: arXiv.org:1508.03534 [physics.soc-ph],
PIK news release. - Wiedermann, M, Donges, JF, Kurths, J, and Donner, RV,
Spatial network surrogates for disentangling complex system structure from spatial embedding of nodes,
Physical Review E 93(4), 042308 (2016),
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.93.042308,
Preprint: arxiv.org:1509.09293 [physics.soc-ph] (2015).
-
van Kan, A, Jegminat, J, Donges, JF, and Kurths, J (2016),
Constrained basin stability for studying transient dynamics in complex systems,
Physical Review E 93(4), 042205,
Preprint: arXiv.org:1601.02162 [nlin.CD],
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.93.042205. -
Heitzig, J, Kittel, T, Donges, JF, and Molkenthin, N (2016),
Topology of sustainable management of dynamical systems with desirable states: from defining planetary boundaries to safe operating spaces in the Earth System,
Earth System Dynamics 7, 21-50,
DOI: 10.5194/esd-7-21-2016.
2015
- Donges, JF, Heitzig, J, Beronov, B, Wiedermann, M, Runge, J, Feng, QY, Tupikina, L, Stolbova, V, Donner, RV, Marwan, N, Dijkstra, HA and Kurths, J (2015),
Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package,
Chaos 25, 113101,
DOI: 10.1063/1.4934554,
Preprint: arXiv.org:1507.01571 [physics.data-an],
Press release (American Institute of Physics),
News release (PIK, English and German),
News release (Stockholm Resilience Centre, English)..
- Runge, J, Petoukhov, V, Donges, JF, Hlinka, J, Jajcay, N, Vejmelka, M, Hartman, D, Marwan, N, Palus, M, and Kurths, J,
Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems,
Nature Communications 6, 8502 (2015),
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9502,
Press release (PIK). - Auer, S, Heitzig, J, Kornek, U, Schöll, E, and Kurths, J (2015),
The dynamics of coalition formation on complex networks,
Nature Scientific Reports 5, 13386,
DOI: 10.1038/srep13386,
Press release.
- Wiedermann, M, Donges, JF, Heitzig, J, Lucht, W, and Kurths, J (2015),
Macroscopic description of complex adaptive networks co-evolving with dynamic node states,
Physical Review E 91, 052801,
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.91.052801,
Preprint: arXiv:1503.05914 [physics.soc-ph]. - Otto, IM, Biewald, A, Coumou, D, Feulner, G, Köhler, C, Nocke, T, Blok, A, Gröber, A, Selchow, S, Tyfield, D, Volkmer, I, Schellnhuber, H-J, and Beck, U (2015).
Socio-economic data for global environmental change research,
Nature Climate Change 5, 503-506,
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2593. - Donges, JF, Donner, RV, Marwan, N, Breitenbach, SFM, Rehfeld, K, and Kurths, J (2015),
Nonlinear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: Potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns,
Climate of the Past 11, 709-741,
DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-709-2015,
Mentioned in Stockholm Resilience Centre's top 25 papers list of resilience reading.
Other copan publications
- Denizen, S, and Donges, JF,
Somewhere. Somehow. A co-evolution story,
Anthropocene Curriculum 2014 course website, contribution of the Technosphere - Coevolution working group, Haus der Kulturen der Welt and Max Planck Institute for the History of Science, Berlin, Germany.
Republished in Technosphere Magazine, Haus der Kulturen der Welt, 2017 (with illustrations).
Teaser: If dialectical distinctions between humans and bacteria were dissolved into an undifferentiated anthropocenic nexus, what new questions would emerge?
Relevant pre-copan publications
- Cornell, S, Berkhout, F, Tuinstra, W, Tabara, JD, Jäger, J, Chabay, I, de Wit, B, Langlais, R, Mills, D, Moll, P, Otto, IM, Petersen, A, Pohl, C, van Kerkhoff, L (2013).
Opening up knowledge systems for better responses to global environmental change. Environmental Science and Policy, 28: 60-70. DOI:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.11.008. - Gerten, D, Lucht, W, Ostberg, S, Heinke, J, Kowarsch, M, Krefft, H, Kundzewicz, ZW, Rastgooy, J, Warren, R, Schellnhuber, H-J (2013),
Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems. Environmental Research Letters 8: 034032. (Discussion at Environmental Research Web, newsstory in Die Welt) - Ostberg, S, Lucht, W, Schaphoff, S, Gerten, D (2013),
Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems, Earth System Dynamics 4:347-357. (European Geosciences Union EGU press release, Nature Climate Change Research Highlight) - Heitzig, J (2012)
Bottom-Up Formation of a Global Climate Coalition of Farsighted Strategic Players. SSRN Climate Change Law & Policy eJournal 4:35 (presentation slides, physics poster, game theory poster, theory paper)
- Donges, JF, Donner, RV, Trauth, MH, Marwan, N, Schellnhuber, HJ, Kurths, J (2011),
Nonlinear detection of paleoclimate-variability transitions possibly related to human evolution. PNAS 108:20422–2042. DOI: - Heitzig, J, Lessmann, K, Zou, Y (2011),
Self-enforcing strategies to deter free-riding in the climate change mitigation game and other repeated public good games. PNAS 108:15739–15744. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1106265108 (Press release, Commentary, Guardian article, Huffington Post article, Climatewire article)
- Lucht, W (2011),
Global change and the need for new cosmologies. In: Bergmann S, Gerten D (Eds.), Religion in Environmental and Climate Change, Continuum International Publishing Group, London, ISBN: 9781441169297, pp. 16-31. - Lucht, W (2009),
Air, a Planetary Hybrid. In: Elements - Continents, Approaches to Determinants of Environmental History and their Reifications, Hermann B, Dahlke C (Eds.), Nova Acta Leopoldina 98/360, Nationale Akademie der Wissenschaften, Halle (Saale), 304 pp., 45-62. - Lucht, W, Pachauri, RK (2004),
The mental component of the Earth system. In: Schellnhuber H-J, Crutzen PJ, Clark WC, Claussen M, Held H (Eds.), Earth System Analysis for Sustainability, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 454 pp., 341-365. (review of this book and paper by Tyler Volk in BioScience here).
Bachelor, Master and PhD theses completed within the scope of COPAN
(most recent first)
- Jakob Lochner, Master thesis in Physics, University of Leipzig
- Tanja Holstein, Master thesis in Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin
- Jonathan Krönke, Master thesis in Physics, University of Potsdam
- Felix Strnad, Master thesis in Physics, University of Göttingen
- Sandra Gutjahr, Master thesis in Medical Physics, University of Halle
- Lena Pfeifer, Master Thesis, TU Berlin, Germany, 2019: Impacts of Changing Climate and Weather on Concern about Climate Change and Willingness to Mitigate in Moderarte Climates: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis (main copan supervisor: Dr. IM Otto).
- Sami Deweerdt, Master Thesis, ESCP Europe, Campus Berlin, Germany, 2019: The oil and gas industry and climate governance: An institutional perspective (main copan supervisor: Dr. IM Otto).
- Philipp Cesnkowsky, Master Thesis, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa and Université Paris VII and XII, France, 2019: Livelihoods, ecosystems provisioning services and social differentiation: An empirical study of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (1993-2011) (main copan supervisor: Dr. IM Otto).
-
Britta Grahan-Hyde, Master Thesis, University of London Centre for Development, Environment and Policy, School of Oriental and African Studies, UK, 2019: Attitudes and assessment of investors with regard to divestment form fossil fuel assets (main copan supervisor: Dr. IM Otto).
- Peter Hatz, Master thesis in Product Design and Process Development, Köln International School of Design, Technical University, Köln, Germany, 2019: Development of Sustainability Indicators for Organizations and Business (main copan supervisor: Dr. IM Otto).
- Benedikt Stumpf, Master thesis in Physics Education, Free University Berlin, 2019: Dynamics of tipping elements on complex networks (main copan supervisor: Dr. JF Donges). For copan publications see above.
- Wolfram Martin Barfuss, PhD thesis in Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 2019: Learning dynamics and decision paradigms in social-ecological dilemmas - Modeling complex social-ecological systems based on the agent-environment interface (main copan supervisor: Dr. JF Donges). DOI: 10.18452/20127.
For copan publications see above. - Johannes Kassel, Master thesis in Physics, University of Göttingen, 2019: Clustering of dynamics node states in an adaptive network model (main copan supervisor: Dr. JF Donges).
For copan publications see above. - Antonia Schuster, Master thesis in Agricultural Economics, Humboldt University Berlin, 2018: Socio-metabolic class theory and statistical analysis of German population survey data. An interdisciplinary approach of assessing socio metabolic classes on the German society and the inherent role of different types of capital on carbon emissions (main copan supervisor: Dr. IM Otto). Humboldt International Office Travel Grant Award, Thaer Institute Best Master Thesis Award.
- Kilian Zimmerer, Master thesis in Physics, University of Heidelberg, 2018: Opinion dynamics in an age of digital transformation - A model of continuous opinion, content filtering and bounded information uptake (main copan supervisors: Dr. JF Donges, W Barfuss).
For copan publications see above. - Milena Oehlers, Bachelor thesis in Physics, Technical University of Berlin, 2018: Bifurcation analysis in a stylized World-Earth model (main copan supervisor: Dr. J Heitzig).
- Finn Müller-Hansen, PhD thesis in Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 2018: A complex systems perspective on land-use dynamics in the Amazon: patterns, agents, networks (main copan supervisors: Dr. JF Donges, Dr. J Heitzig). DOI: 10.18452/19476.
For copan publications see above. - Sebastian Heinz, Master thesis in Sustainable Resource Management, Technical University Munich, 2018: Examining the Impact of Environmental Uncertainty and the Drivers of Adaptation in the Context of Asymmetric Resource Management Dilemmas: Lessons from Behavioral Irrigation Experiments Carried Out in China (main copan supervisor: Dr. IM Otto)
- Kyoung Mi Kim, Master thesis in Environmental and Resource Management, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus - Senftenberg, 2018: The Lifestyle Carbon Footprint of the Super Rich (main copan supervisor: Dr. IM Otto)
- Luca Joey Kunz, Bachelor thesis in Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 2018:
Low-dimensional models of global human-nature coevolution and their Topology of Sustainable Management (main copan supervisor: Dr. J Heitzig)
- Anja Klein, Master thesis in Anthropology, Humboldt University Berlin, 2018:
Knowledge Practices in the Modelling of "Socio-Ecological Coevolutions":
On Simplification, Experimentation, Visualization and Alignment (HU supervisors: Prof. Dr. Jörg Niewöhner, Prof. Dr. Tobias Krüger). DOI: 10.18452/19475. - Vivian Zoé Grudde, Master thesis in Environmental Policy, Sciences Po, Paris School of International Affairs, 2018:
Meet, Discuss… and Support Climate Policies! A proposal for a complex system model framework for polycentric climate governance (main copan supervisor: Dr. J Heitzig) - Till Kolster, Master thesis in Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 2018:
Development of an agent-based migration model including market interactions and statistical analysis thereof (main copan supervisors: Dr. J Heitzig, J Kolb).
For copan publications see above. - Tim Kittel, PhD thesis in Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 2018:
Transient analysis of complex dynamical systems in the context of sustainability (main copan supervisor: Dr. J Heitzig). DOI: 10.18452/18928.
For copan publications see above. - Ann Kristin Klose, Bachelor thesis in Environmental Science, Carl-von-Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, 2018:
Dynamics of interacting ecological tipping elements (main copan supervisor: Dr. JF Donges). - Yuki Asano, Bachelor thesis in Economics, FernUniversität Hagen, 2017:
Social learning in an agent-based Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model (main copan supervisors: J Kolb, Dr. J Heitzig). - Vera Heck, PhD thesis in Physical Geography, Humboldt University Berlin, 2017:
Interference in the Earth system through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal: numerical simulations of trade-offs, risks and opportunities (main copan supervisor: Dr. JF Donges).
copan paper published in Earth System Dynamics. - Fabian Geier, Master thesis in Physics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, 2016:
Evolution of opinion formation in complex single and double layer networks with local nonlinear resource dynamics (main copan supervisors: Dr. JF Donges, W Barfuss). - Rebekka Koch, Bachelor thesis in Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 2016:
Operationalization of topology of sustainable management to estimate qualitatively different regions in state space (main copan supervisors: T Kittel, Dr. J Heitzig).
Preprint published in arXiv. - Jan Nitzbon, Master thesis in Physics, Georg-August-University of Göttingen, 2016:
Bifurcation analysis and parameter estimation in low-dimensional models of global human-nature coevolution (main copan supervisor: Dr. J Heitzig).
Published in Environmental Research Letters. - Erik Scharwächter, Master thesis in Computer Science, RWTH Aachen University, 2016: Mining frequent temporal subgraphs in dynamic networks (main copan supervisor: Dr. JF Donges).
Published in ICDM 2016 proceedings. - Birte Ewers, Master thesis in Economics, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, 2016: Fossil fuel divestment, carbon risk and climate change mitigation dynamics in an agent-based simulation (main copan supervisors: Dr. J Heitzig, Dr. JF Donges).
- Boyan Beronov, Bachelor thesis in Physics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, 2015: A cybernetic framework describing limited information-processing open systems (main copan supervisor: Dr. JF Donges).
- Sabine Auer, Master thesis in Physics, Technical University Berlin, 2014:
The dynamics of coalition formation on complex networks (main copan supervisor: Dr. J Heitzig).
Published in Nature Scientific Reports. - Marc Wiedermann, Master thesis in Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 2014:
Opinion formation and imitation on complex networks driven by local nonlinear resource dynamics (main copan supervisor: Dr. JF Donges).
Published in Physical Review E.