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Hydrology and Water Resources

Hydrological and Water Resources Modeling

Phase 2: B-EPICC (2022-2023)

This module continues to i) analyze the consequences of climate change for the nexus water-food-energy (WFE), ii) analyze the consequences and adaptation possibilities due to land-use changes, and iii) analyze hydro-climatic extremes such as floods and droughts in Peru. The analysis of the consequences of climate change for the WFE is also extended to new target countries, Brazil and Ethiopia. Moreover, this module continues to perform the capacity building through training courses or exchange of experts and cooperation in the dissemination of the co-produced results together with local partners.

Phase 1: EPICC (2018-2021) – Achievements

In the project’s first phase, special attention was paid to the development of the new observational climate datasets, understanding of hydrological processes of Andean and Amazonian watersheds, and quantification of the impacts of climate change on the runoff and water budget components. These activities were carried out in close collaboration with local, national, and international experts and other stakeholders in the three target countries Peru, Tanzania, and India.

a) Peru

A novel precipitation dataset RAIN4PE (Rain for Peru and Ecuador) was developed. RAIN4PE is the only gridded precipitation product for Peru and Ecuador, which benefits from maximum available in-situ observations, multiple precipitation sources, and elevation data, and is supplemented by streamflow data to correct the precipitation underestimation over páramos and montane catchments. RAIN4PE was proved to outperform existing local and global gridded precipitation datasets for hydrological modeling. This underlines the suitability of RAIN4PE for hydrometeorological applications throughout Peru and Ecuador.

We analyzed the response of vegetation and hydrological processes of an Andean basin, the Vicanota river basin. In Andean catchments, the baseflow is the main component of the streamflow sustaining the long dry-season flow, and pasture areas offer higher water yield and baseflow than other land-cover types. This feature of pasture highlights its importance as an adaptation measure against climate change impacts on water resources.

Details in:

Fernandez-Palomino, C.A., Hattermann, F.F., Krysanova, V., Lobanova, A., Vega-Jácome, F., Lavado, W., Santini, W., Aybar, C., Bronstert, A., 2021a. A novel high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset for Peruvian and Ecuadorian watersheds – development and hydrological evaluation. J. Hydrometeorol. 1. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0285.1
Fernandez-Palomino, C.A., Hattermann, F.F., Krysanova, V., Lobanova, A., Vega-Jácome, F., Lavado, W., Santini, W., Aybar, C., Bronstert, A., 2021b. Rain for Peru and Ecuador (RAIN4PE). V. 1.0. GFZ Data Serv. https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2020.010
Fernandez-Palomino, C.A., Hattermann, F.F., Krysanova, V., Vega-Jácome, F., Bronstert, A., 2020. Towards a more consistent eco-hydrological modelling through multi-objective calibration: a case study in the Andean Vilcanota River basin, Peru. Hydrol. Sci. J. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1846740

b) India

Increases in mean and high flows and the frequency of high flows in the Godavari River basin are projected. The projected increases are higher under RCP 8.5 and by the End of the century (2071–2100). Details in:

Mishra, V., Shah, H., López, M.R.R., Lobanova, A., Krysanova, V., 2020. Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin? Clim. Chang. 2020 1633 163, 1187–1205. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10584-020-02847-7

c) Tanzania

A model-supported analysis of climate change impact on water budget components and runoff in the Upper Katuma basin and Wami basin was carried out. An overall increase of runoff across the Wami basin with a higher increase over the western area of the Wami basin for the far future period and under high emission scenarios is expected. Similarly, an increase in runoff throughout the year in the far future under high emission scenarios in the Katuma basin is projected.