“In our study, the ice-shelves prove themselves as tipping-points within the earth system,” says Anders Levermann, lead author of the study. “Until now, it wasn’t clear that there can be different states. Our analysis shows that if too much ice breaks off at the ice-front, then there could possibly be nothing to retain it – the ice-front would continue to retreat further and further.” What happens within the sheet-shelf system is now described by the new equation developed by the scientists. The equation makes it possible to grasp the fundamental dynamics of the ice-shelves, according to Levermann, “although or precisely because it doesn’t include all details.”
This is not just of theoretical importance. A sudden retreat of, say, the Ross Ice Shelf to the smallest but still stable position would reduce the back stresses for the continental ice-sheet by more than 90%, application of the equation shows. “Thus, the so-called calving of shelves is a local event that might have global consequences,” says Levermann. “For now, it is a completely natural process – but as climate change proceeds, this process is going to change. Therefore, we need to understand it better.”
In simulations, the law proved its ability to calculate realistic fronts. Big break-offs, like the one of Larsen B ten years ago, were reproduced well by the equation. This shelf was stable for 12000 years. In Antarctica, a continent as big as Europe, enormous amounts of water are stored as ice. The surface of the ice ‑ in contrast to the Greenland ice-sheet, for example ‑ does not thaw due to the very cold temperatures. The ice thaws once it reaches the ocean – whose temperature will be influenced in the long-run by global warming.
Article: Levermann, A., Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., Martin, M.A., Haseloff, M., Joughin, I. (2012: Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat. The Cryosphere, 6, 273-286 [doi:10.5194/tc-6-273-2012]
