WP 1: Mitigation and Energy Transition Risks – Non-Modelling

This work package explores how domestic political and economic factors, such as job losses and reduced economic rents in traditional energy industries, can destabilize the energy transition and hinder global climate efforts. It aims to align international climate assistance with partner countries' realities, developing tailored strategies to minimize resistance, support low-emission transitions, and ensure a just and inclusive energy transition.

Task 1.4: Political Economy Considerations

 
This task examines how domestic political and economic factors can destabilize energy transitions, potentially hindering global climate mitigation efforts. By understanding these dynamics, the project aims to align international climate support with the realities and constraints of partner countries.

Key Focus Areas

1. Domestic Political Economy Constraints

• Loss of economic rents or shifts in power structures tied to traditional energy industries.
• Political backlash from stakeholders affected by higher energy prices or job losses due to structural changes (e.g., coal mine closures).
• Constraints can delay or dilute ambitious climate policies and are crucial to factor into geopolitical strategies.

2. International Support Mechanisms

• Explore how international processes, policies, and financial transfers can assist countries in transitioning away from high-emission activities (e.g., phasing out coal, ramping up energy transition minerals).
• Identify tailored strategies for supporting countries to navigate political and economic hurdles, such as structural adjustments and job retraining programs.

3. Geopolitical Implications

• National constraints have ripple effects on the geopolitics of climate change, potentially stalling collective progress.
• International efforts should anticipate and mitigate these risks by fostering inclusive, equitable transitions aligned with domestic political realities.

Expected Outcomes

• Insights into how national political and economic realities influence climate transitions.
• Recommendations for integrating international support mechanisms into climate strategies to accelerate transitions.
• Strategies to reduce political resistance and bolster resilience to structural change through policy design and targeted support.