Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica of Mengel et al. (Nature Climate Change 2014)

The multi-millennial sea-level commitment of global warming of Levermann et al.(PNAS 2013) Sea-level contribution from (a) ocean warming, (b) mountain glaciers, (c) Greenland, (d) Antarctica and (e) the total sea-level commitment after 2000 years (Levermann et al. (2013).

The multi-millennial sea-level commitment of global warming of Levermann et al.(PNAS 2013) Future sea-level commitment: For each degree of warming above pre-industrial, sea-level will rise by about 2.3m within a period of 2000 years (Levermann et al. (2013). For projections of the 21st century we propose a linear response function R(t) = Γ⋅t^α with positive α for Antarctic ice discharge from surface warming & negative α for other contributions (Winkelmann & Levermann, 2012).

Sea level projections of Vermeer and Rahmstorf (PNAS 2009)

Comparison of observed sea level rise with IPCC projections, updated in 2010 from Rahmstorf et al. (Science 2007). (More info.)

Fifteen-year averages of the global
mean temperature (blue, °C) and rate of sea
level rise (red, cm/year), both detrended. From Rahmstorf (Science 2007).

Sea level hindcast of Vermeer and Rahmstorf (PNAS 2009)

Sea level rates of rise from Vermeer and Rahmstorf (PNAS 2009)

Compilation of different sea level estimates up to the year 2300. See ppt-file for full details.

Simulation of the last glacial cycle with the CLIMBER-2 model (red curve) as compared to data, from Ganopolski et al. 2010. See ppt-file for full details.