When and why does heavy rain occur? A retrospective analysis on climatic drivers
by P. Hoffmann et al.

Hydro-Climatic Risks









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Climate Explorer

Annual Global Means 1981-2020 (ERA5 Reanalysis Data)

Near Surface Temperature Column Water Vapor NH Zonal Windspeed
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+1°C/30yr Rainfall Intensity Rainfall Persistency

https://climexp.knmi.nl/

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Climate Explorer

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Anomalies Eastern Mediterranean Sea
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Source for Moisture Accumulation Climatology vs Present Condition 2020

unusually high SST at the end of the year

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Relocation of Cyclones (Circulation Patterns)

Synoptical Evolution from 2022-02-21

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Retrospective Analysis

Critical Circulation Patterns 1981-2021

Classification Criticality
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Recurring Shapes of the Circulation Candidates for Heavy Rainfall
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Retrospective Analysis

Composit Patterns of WT03 in Nov-Dec (wet over Near-East)

Temperature Precipitation
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Warm Anomalies over Russia Dry Conditions over Central Europe
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Retrospective Analysis

Assessing the current Weather Conditions

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Seasonal Cycle of Absolute and Cumulative Rainfall in Jordan

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Causal Network

Training Rules: Heavy Rainfall Events in Jordan
  • SSTA: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly over the Eastern Mediterranean Sea
  • CCP: Critical Circulation Patterns
  • HR: Heavy Rainfall in Jordan

Identification of potential Predictors for Heavy Rainfall in Jordan

  • High Probability for HR: SSTA & CCP
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From Global to Regional Climate Projections

CMIP6: Maximum 1-Day Precipitation (RX1day)

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evaluation of climate projections in terms of dynamical drivers for heavy rainfall

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