The future of the planet Earth and the life span of the biosphere <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="pik_neu.css" type="text/css"> </head> <body bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" > <table width="101%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" align="left" name="layout" > <tr> <td rowspan="3" align="left" valign="top"> <img src="images/spacer.gif" width="1" height="1"></td> <td align="left" valign="top" height="108"> <table width="521" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" name="header" height="108"> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="20" height="5"></td> <td align="left" valign="top"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="85" height="5"></td> <td align="left" valign="top"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="20" height="5"></td> <td align="left" valign="top"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="313" height="5"></td> <td align="left" valign="top"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top"></td> <td align="left" valign="top" colspan="4"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="20" height="10"></td> <td align="left" valign="bottom"> </td> <td align="left" valign="bottom"> </td> <td align="left" valign="bottom" class="singleline"> </td> <td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="3"><a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de"><img src="images/logo.gif" width="82" height="82" border="0"></a></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="20" height="24"></td> <td align="left" valign="top" colspan="3"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="20" height="64"></td> <td colspan="3" align="left" valign="top"><a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de/"><img src="images/titel.gif" width="418" height="40" border="0"></a></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top"> <table width="92%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" name="content" > <tr valign="top"> <td align="left"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="20" height="1"></td> <td align="left"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="235" height="5"></td> <td align="left" width="100%"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="135" height="5"></td> <td align="left"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="40" height="20"></td> <td align="left"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="180" height="1"></td> <td align="left"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top"> </td> <td align="left" valign="bottom" colspan="2"><span class="header_page">Werner von Bloh </span><br> <img src="images/orange.gif" width="100%" height="1"></td> <td align="left" valign="bottom"><img src="images/orange.gif" width="40" height="1"></td> <td align="left" valign="bottom"><img src="images/orange.gif" width="180" height="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top"><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="20" height="44"></td> <td align="left" valign="bottom" colspan="2" height="3"> <span class="header"> The future of the planet Earth and the life span of the biosphere </span> </td> <td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="2"> </td> <td align="left" valign="top" rowspan="2" class="body"> <p><br><a href="../homepage/welcome.html">Werner von Bloh</a><img src="images/home2.gif" width="15" height="13"><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="180" height="1" vspace="3"><br> <a href="../homepage/welcome.html#projects">Projects involved</a><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="180" height="1" vspace="3"><br> <a href="../homepage/teaching">Teaching</a><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="180" height="1" vspace="3"><br> <a href="welcome.html">Publications</a><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="180" height="1" vspace="3"><br> <a href="../homepage/cv.html">Curriculum Vitae</a><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="180" height="1" vspace="3"><br> <a href="../parallel.html">Parallel programming</a><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="180" height="1" vspace="3"><br> <a href="../intranet">My intranet pages</a><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="180" height="1" vspace="3"><br> <a href="../mpeg">Animations</a><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="180" height="1" vspace="3"><br> <a href="../extern.html">External links</a><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="180" height="1" vspace="3"><br> </p></td> </tr> <tr align="left" valign="top"> <td> </td> <td colspan="2"><p><br>  <p class=body>S. Franck, <A HREF="../homepage">W. von Bloh</A>, C. Bounama, and <A HREF="/john">H.-J. Schellnhuber</A><br><br> <I>In: V. Burdyuzha and G. Khozin (Eds.), The Future of the Universe and the Future of our Civilization, World Scientific, Singapore, 309-315 (2000)</I> </P> <P class=body> <A HREF="http://www.pik-potsdam.de">Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research</A> (PIK), Telegrafenberg, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany. <p> <span class="header"><A NAME="part1">Abstract</A><br> <img src="images/purple.gif" width="100%" height="1"></span></p> <P class=body> A geosphere-biosphere model to analyze the evolution of the Earth system on a global scale from the geological past to the planetary future up to 1.5 billion years is presented. The Earth-system model consists of the components solid Earth, hydrosph ere, atmosphere, and biosphere. It evolves under the external influence of increasing solar luminosity. The model is based on a quasi-equilibrium formulation of the large-scale global carbon balance between the main sources and the main sinks as modified by the biosphere. The state of parameters of the Earth system determines the ``terrestrial life corridor'' for the existence of a photosynthesis-based biosphere. In the case of the geostatic approximation the results of Caldeira and Kasting (1992) concerning the life span of the biosphere are reproduced. The consideration of geodynamics in the new model reveals to a higher atmospheric carbon content for the past but a much stronger decrease for the future. This leads to a reduction of the life span of the biosphere of up to some hundred million years (Franck et al., 2000). The habitable zone and the optimum position of an Earth-like planet with maximum life span of any photosynthesis-based biosphere are calculated. </P> </td> </tr> <tr align="left" valign="top"> <td> </td> <td class="body" colspan="2"> <p><br> </p></td> <td class="body"> </td> <td class="body"> </td> </tr> <tr align="left" valign="top"> <td> </td> <td class="body" colspan="2"> </td> <td class="body"> </td> <td class="body"> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="bottom"> <table width="500" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr align="left" valign="top"> <td><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="20" height="1"></td> <td><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="140" height="1"></td> <td> </td> <td><img src="images/spacer.gif" width="400" height="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td class="body"><a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de/impressum">Impressum © PIK 2006</a></td> <td> </td> <td class="body"> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </body> </html>