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Victor Brovkin, Stephen Sitch, Werner von Bloh, Martin Claussen, Eva Bauer and Wolfgang Cramer
Global Change Biology, 10, 1253-1266 (2004)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),
Telegrafenberg, P.O. Box 60 12 03,
14412 Potsdam, Germany.
We assess the role of changing natural (volcanic, aerosol, insolation) and
anthropogenic (CO2 emissions, land cover) forcings on the global climate
system over the last 150 years using an earth system model of intermediate
complexity, CLIMBER-2. We apply several datasets of historical land-use
reconstructions: the cropland dataset by Ramankutty & Foley (1999) (R&F),
the HYDE land cover dataset of Klein Goldewijk (2001), and the land-use
emissions data from Houghton & Hackler (2002). Comparison between the
simulated and observed temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 and
delta13CO2
are used to evaluate these datasets. To check model uncertainty, CLIMBER-2
was coupled to the more complex Lund Potsdam Jena (LPJ) dynamic global
vegetation model.
In simulation with R&F dataset, biogeophysical mechanisms
due to land cover changes tend to decrease global air temperature by 0.26°C, while biogeochemical mechanisms act to warm the climate by 0.18°C.
The net effect on climate is negligible on a global scale, but pronounced
over the land in the temperate and high northern latitudes where a cooling
due to an increase in land surface albedo offsets the warming due to
land-use CO2 emissions.
Land cover changes led to estimated increases in
atmospheric CO2 of between 22 and 43 ppmv. Over the entire period 1800-2000,
simulated delta13CO2 with HYDE compares most favourably with ice core during
1850-1950 and Cape Grim data, indicating preference of earlier land clearance
in HYDE over R&F. In relative terms, land cover forcing corresponds to 25-49%
of the observed growth in atmospheric CO2. This contribution declined
from 36-60% during 1850-1960 to 4-35% during 1960-2000. CLIMBER-2-LPJ
simulates the land cover contribution to atmospheric CO2 growth to decrease
from 68% during 1900-1960 to 12% in the 1980s. Overall, our simulations show
a decline in the relative role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO2
increase during the last 150 years.
Keywords: atmospheric CO2 concentration,
atmospheric delta13CO2, biogeophysical effects,
biosphere atmosphere interaction, earth system modelling,
historical land cover changes, interactive carbon cycle
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