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It has been argued that parts of the climate system can experience rapid changes and that such tipping can be anticipated by early warning signals. Here the authors discuss the limitations of such indicators and common pitfalls in their application.

Many governments have adopted policies to reduce fossil fuel subsidies, but these policies almost always fail within three years. Policymakers should find new strategies to trim subsidies and promote renewable energy without triggering political backlash.

Urban heat islands are known to increase heat-related mortality, but a global analysis of more than 3,000 cities reveals that urban heat islands also substantially reduce cold-related mortality — a more than fourfold offset, globally. Although commonly used cooling strategies benefit some tropical cities, they harm others at higher latitudes, and instead a seasonally adaptive approach to heat mitigation is needed.

The urban heat island (UHI) effect can increase and decrease mortality depending on the season, yet global comparison is still lacking. This study finds that the UHI effect has net positive impact by reducing more cold-related mortality and highlights the necessity of place-based adaptive cooling strategies.

Coastal communities are at risk from extreme coastal storms. This study leverages US tide gauge data from 1950–2020 to show that likelihood estimates of storm surge extremes have been underpredicted at 85% of gauge sites and finds regional likely changes in their frequency over that historical monitoring period.

In the past decades, the duration and rate of carbon uptake have increased, enhancing ecosystem productivity. The uptake rate has a larger effect than the duration has on the temporal changes in productivity. Changes in productivity during the early and the late growing seasons are asymmetric, owing to inconsistent changes in the duration of carbon uptake over time.

An Earth system model including Antarctic ice-shelf cavities is used to explore the response and feedback of Antarctic basal melt in various climate scenarios. The inclusion of ice-shelf cavities provides more comprehensive insight into Southern Ocean dynamics and could improve future climate models.

The authors assess the current and future burden of mental and behavioural disorders across Australia. They show that high temperatures contributed 1.8% of Australia’s mental and behavioural disorder burden in the 2010s with expected increases to 2.4–2.8% by the 2050s and highlight the need for both adaptation and mitigation.

Using satellite and carbon-flux data, the authors show that enhanced gross primary productivity in recent decades is driven primarily by increases in the rate, rather than the duration, of carbon uptake. They highlight asymmetric changes in productivity across seasons, which may worsen under climate change.

Heatwaves in lakes are increasing with climate change, but are typically studied at the surface; little is known about heatwave dynamics with depth. This study finds subsurface heatwaves last longer, but are less intense than surface heatwaves and have increased in frequency over the past 40 years.

Melting from below is crucial for the future evolution of Antarctic ice shelves. Here the authors use an Earth system model with explicit simulations of ice-shelf cavities to show how regional hydrography and topography determine when an ice shelf will undergo rapid melting.

Moving towards net-zero carbon emissions reduces reliance on fossil fuels but requires geographically concentrated materials for clean energy technologies. Now research finds countries can reduce emerging materials risks by expanding trading partnerships.

Trade risks associated with fossil fuels and critical materials matter for energy security, and will evolve with the low-carbon transition. Here the researchers find that overall trade risks decrease for most countries in net-zero scenarios, although risks to electricity or transportation sectors may increase.

Climate change and climate action are socially and politically divisive topics in many countries. In addition to contributing to political disparity, climate research is also affected by political context, with consequences not only for scientists but for society as well.