back to AVEC
Speaker: Jaqueline de Chazal
jacqueline.dechazal<at>ujf-grenoble.fr
Université Joseph Fourier (CEFE), BP 53 X, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France
Abstract
A VISTA to whom: Assessing vulnerability in traditional agricultural landscapes
This presentation gives an overview of the conceptual framework of the VISTA project (Vulnerability of Ecosystem Services to Land Use Change in Traditional Agricultural Landscapes). Traditionally managed, marginal agricultural landscapes in Europe are currently subject to major land use changes as a result of rapid technological, economic and social changes. An overall reduction in agricultural land through abandonment and/or changes in intensity and type of use has transformed landscapes from mosaics of a range of land use intensities to mosaics where large abandoned areas are contrasted with foci of intensive use. The remaining open habitats characteristic of these traditionally managed landscapes are potentially under further threat from continuing land use change and/or an intrinsic fragility of sparse and disconnected plant and animal populations. An assessment of the vulnerability of these traditional agricultural landscapes (TAL) to future land use change, including an evaluation of threats and a quantification of changes in the ecosystem services they provide is therefore urgently needed. The VISTA project includes a range of partners across Europe and uses 11 study sites including sites in France, United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, Portugal, Greece, Norway, Czech Republic and Israel.
The VISTA project uses Plant Functional Traits (PFTs) to describe prospective ecosystem change over the next 100 years, under four of the IPCC SRES climate change scenarios. This is achieved using field studies, landscape modelling, and agent based modelling. Beneficiaries (stakeholders) and their respective ecosystem services are identified, and their perceptions of change in selected ecosystem services under each of the scenarios evaluated through informal and formal social surveys. Possible beneficiaries for this project are diverse and include people who both live and do not live at the study sites. For example, possible beneficiaries include people with ‘provisioning’ service interests (e.g. wool, cheese, timber production or wild animal harvesting), and/or regulating service interests (e.g. CO2 uptake, erosion control) such as farmers, hunters, or foresters living in or near the study sites, and people with ‘cultural’ and ‘supporting’ service interests (e.g. aesthetics, biodiversity conservation) such as national park managers or tourists.
VISTA builds on the vulnerability concept, where vulnerability is understood as being a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposure and adaptive capacity are represented in terms of prospective changes in land use under the four scenarios, using agent based modelling. Sensitivity is represented by changes in selected ecosystem services as a response to the scenarios, using PFTs as measures of ecosystem change. We introduce an additional concept, ‘acceptability’ to represent identified beneficiaries’ judgements about changes in selected ecosystem services under the four scenarios. Vulnerability represents the comparison of the collective degree of acceptability of change in the full set of ecosystem services, as a response to exposure, by all beneficiaries.
A series of matrices provide the quantitative information to assess vulnerability . Matrix BF-ES links identified beneficiaries and their respective ecosystem services. Matrix FT-EA links plant functional traits to ecosystem attributes (functions) of interest. Matrix EA-ES links these ecosystem attributes with identified ecosystem services. Matrix EA-ES(BF) represents beneficiaries’ perceptions of the relationship between ecosystem attributes and the delivery of ecosystem services. A three way matrix, an ‘acceptability cube’ represents the evaluation of changes in selected ecosystem services by all beneficiaries for each scenario. Changes are evaluated on a Likert point rating scale from ‘acceptable’ through to ‘not acceptable’.
Vulnerability assessment is estimated either (A) within site, across scenario, or (B) across sites, within scenario. Vulnerability is calculated by summing up all the ‘acceptable’ responses, and then calculating the proportion of these responses relative to the whole set. Greater vulnerability is represented by a smaller proportion of ‘acceptable’ responses relative to the total number of responses. For example, if the selected rating system uses a rating from 1 – 5, where 5 is greatest acceptability, vulnerability is then calculated by summing up the scores, and dividing this by the total number of responses. A lower score represents greater vulnerability.
A practical illustration of vulnerability assessment will be presented using some cases from the study sites. For example, selected PFTs that are being used to assess ecosystem change include plant height, specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), and onset of flowering. Ecosystem attributes of interest include above ground net primary productivity (ANPP), litter decomposability, and components of the water cycle (e.g. soil water content). Identified beneficiaries include farmers, national park managers, skiers, hikers and tourists. Associated ecosystem services include milk, cheese and meat production, timber production, skiing, biodiversity conservation, harvest of natural products, and a view of wildflowers. Types of land uses include grazed or mown grassland, cereal production, abandoned arable and/or grazing land, agroforestry, agro-sylvo-pastoral systems (‘Montado’), harvested forest, and unused forest.
Suggestions for students to work on during the teamwork hours
|
|
AVEC
is a EU FP5 Concerted Action No. EVK2-2001-00074
|
back to the
AVEC
Summer School Programme
back to AVEC |