Place: Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin-Adlershof
Lectures: weekly, Thursday 11-13 (ct), start Oct 16 (Dr. Reik Donner / Dr. Jonathan Donges), room NEW 15 1'202
Tutorials: bi-weekly, Thursday 9-11 (ct), start Oct 30 (Marc Wiedermann), room NEW 15 1'427
Lecture-ID: 40566 VL
Audience: open for all students of natural sciences and related areas with particular interest in the physical modeling of climate, ecology and socio-economy (advanced BSc, MSc or PhD student level)
Certificate: regular participation in lectures and tutorials, 50% of points from exercise sheets; for graded certificate: additional oral examination at the end of the lecture series
Tentative list of topics (further may be added upon suggestions from the audience)
- Foundations of nonlinear dynamics: conservative vs. dissipative dynamics, phase space concept, qualitative analysis of dynamical systems, bifurcations, stochastic dynamics and noise-induced phenomena
- Conceptual models of Earth climate: energy balance models, oscillator models for glacial cycles, box models for thermo-haline circulation and monsoon dynamics, stochastic models of abrupt glacial climate shifts
- Tipping points in the Earth system: deterministic vs. stochastic models, behavior of dynamical systems close to codimension-one bifurcations, statistical detection of regime shifts via critical slowing down, potential approach
- Physics of socio-economic systems: agent-based modeling, models for contact dynamics, interaction and imitation, macroscopic description with rate equations, moment-closure approximations, network models
- Ecosystem dynamics: space-time models (deterministic and stochastic) in theoretical ecology, stability of ecosystems as complex networks, models for climate-ecosystem interactions and biogeochemical cycles, resource dynamics in socio-economic models
Specific literature for the individual lectures:
27 November 2014: Foundations of theoretical ecology
- R. Arditi, L.R. Ginzburg: Coupling in predator-prey dynamics: ratio-dependence. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 139, 311-326, 1989
4 December 2014: Stochastic processes and stochastic models in ecology
- O. Ovaskainen, B. Meerson: Stochastic models of population extinction. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 25, 643-652, 2010
- V. Dakos et al.: Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down. Ecology, 93, 264-271, 2012
- V. Brovkin et al.: On the stability of the atmosphere-vegetation system in the Sahara/Sahel region. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103 (D24), 31613-31624, 1998
- S. Bathiany et al.: Implications of climate variability for the detection of multiple equilibria and for rapid transitions in the atmosphere-vegetation system. Climate Dynamics, 38, 1775-1790, 2012
11 December 2014: Modeling of food webs
- H. Caswell, M.G. Neubert: Chaos and closure terms in plankton food chain models. Journal of Plankton Research, 20, 1837-1845, 1998
- S.R. Carpenter et al.: Leading indicators of trophic cascades. Ecology Letters, 11, 128-138, 2008
- D.B. Stouffer et al.: Quantitative patterns in the structure of model and empirical food webs. Ecology, 86, 1301-1311, 2005
18 December 2014: Generalized modeling and applications
- T. Gross, U. Feudel: Generalized models as a universal approach to the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems. Physical Review E, 73, 016205, 2006
- J.D. Yeakel et al.: Generalized modeling of ecological population dynamics. Theoretical Ecology, 4, 179-194, 2011
- S.J. Lade: Regime shifts in a socio-ecological system. Theoretical Ecology, 6, 359-372, 2013
8 January 2015: Generalized modeling of food webs, Socio-hydrology
- T. Gross, U. Feudel: Generalized models as a universal approach to the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems. Physical Review E, 73, 016205, 2006
- T. Gross et al.: Generalized models reveal stabilizing factors in food webs. Science, 325, 747-750, 2009
- A. Viglione et al.: Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on deadling with flood risk - Roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust. Journal of Hydrology, 518, 71-82, 2014
Last update: 10 January 2015
